Labour's Tactical Vote Strategy Falters as Greens Challenge in Gorton and Denton
Labour's message to the voters of Gorton and Denton was clear: only they could stop Reform. However, the Greens, along with the electorate, proved them wrong in a striking by-election result. One notable point from Thursday's outcome is that the three Left-wing parties – the Greens, Labour, and the Lib Dems – collectively achieved the same vote share as they did at the general election. This will offer no comfort to Sir Keir Starmer, but it may encourage those hoping that voters opposed to Reform will find ways to keep them out of office.
The Challenges of Tactical Voting on the Left
My polling indicates that voters on the Left overwhelmingly express willingness to vote tactically to stop the Right – in principle. Yet, this strategy relies on two significant assumptions. First, voters must always identify the smart tactical choice in their constituency, a task complicated by each party claiming they alone can defeat the common enemy. Can a resurgent Kemi Badenoch exploit the Left's infighting and disdain for Reform's 'failed Tories'?
The second, and much larger, problem is that in many seats, this approach depends on supporters of other parties being prepared to turn out and vote for an unpopular Labour government they never liked. By the next election, these individuals will have spent four or five years criticizing Labour's stance on Gaza, perceived pandering to the Right on migration, winter fuel cuts, student debt, and the absence of progressive zeal. These voters desire change, and the notion that they will opt for more of the same – rather than a party that excites them and has real momentum – grows increasingly fanciful.
Internal Divisions and the Rise of Smaller Parties
More likely, in my view, is that the parties of the Left will increasingly turn their fire upon each other. Far from uniting against the Right, the Greens – together with the SNP and Plaid Cymru – may see themselves as the rebel alliance against Labour's Death Star, with Starmer cast as a down-at-heel Darth Vader. With local council, Scottish Parliament, and Welsh Senedd elections approaching in a few weeks, the idea that smaller parties represent a wasted vote is now out of the window.
Outside the Left-wing universe, voters voice complaints about broken promises not to raise taxes, failure to eliminate sleaze from politics, and the absence of competent leadership – not to mention issues like winter fuel, illegal migration, two-tier justice, the cost of living, burdens on business, and the Prime Minister's apparent indecisiveness. The Greens, led by Zack Polanski, along with the SNP and Plaid Cymru, position themselves as this rebel alliance against Labour's dominance.
Starmer's Leadership and Party Dynamics
Yet, a few weeks ago, Starmer nearly lost his job for appointing Peter Mandelson as an ambassador. I found voters willing to give him the benefit of the doubt over this debacle but not on his overall governance. 'For me, it's not the decision that would make me think, 'Oh God, you should go',' one woman told us. 'There's lots of other things he's done that make me think that, but that's not one of them.' This situation highlights a metaphor for the state of our politics: a preoccupation with process and personality over issues affecting daily lives.
Starmer survives for now, but with the loss of his chief of staff and other confidantes, those familiar with Labour's byzantine machinations say he is at the mercy of the 'soft Left'. The Green threat could push the party in a more resolutely Leftward direction, potentially testing the idea that it is better to have a government with unpalatable beliefs than one unsure of its convictions.
Reform's Reflections and Conservative Challenges
Reform will also be reflecting on the by-election. Doubling their vote share since the general election was impressive, though they may feel disappointed. Recent weeks have underscored two challenges for the party: a lack of governing experience and the perception that they are 'a bit like the Conservatives, in a bad way'. The unveiling of Nigel Farage's senior team, featuring familiar faces from the Johnson-Truss-Sunak years, raised questions about whether this represents the change voters seek. 'It wasn't the original plan, was it, to be a load of failed Tories?' one observer noted.
This exodus is also an ongoing headache for the Conservatives, signaling that defectors see little prospect of imminent recovery. While slowly improving, the numbers indicating the Tories have changed since their electoral defeat remain low. In contrast, Kemi Badenoch continues to gain recognition with her feisty performances in the Commons and elsewhere. With her most dangerous internal opponent gone, she has begun to rally disheartened Tories and pique broader public interest. Voters believe she has earned the right to a hearing, but the question remains what she can achieve with it.
Lord Ashcroft is a businessman, philanthropist, author, and pollster.
