Labour is on track for its worst local election performance next Thursday, with vote shares set to fall to historic lows across England, Wales, and Scotland, according to polling data analysed by the Guardian. The result would pile further pressure on Keir Starmer’s leadership, as Reform, the Greens, and nationalist parties make significant gains.
In Wales, Labour’s vote share has more than halved, potentially pushing the party into third place in the race for the Senedd, which it has dominated since 1999. Reform and Plaid Cymru are vying for first. In Scotland, the SNP is likely to remain in power, with Reform heading for second. In England, Labour faces threats from Reform, the Greens, the Liberal Democrats, and independents across 136 council races, including in its northern and London strongholds.
Professor Stephen Fisher of the University of Oxford estimates Labour will lose 1,900 councillors on 7 May – 74% of the seats it currently holds that are up for re-election. He predicts Reform will gain 2,260 councillors, the Greens 450, and the Liberal Democrats 200. The Conservatives are also set to lose 1,010 councillors. Fisher described the potential losses for Labour as 'unprecedented', while noting Reform’s gains could triple its local representation overnight.
The electoral catastrophe could reignite calls for a leadership challenge against Starmer, who has faced scrutiny over the appointment of Peter Mandelson as US ambassador. While Starmer’s refusal to involve the UK directly in the Iran war initially improved his approval ratings, the recent Mandelson revelations may reverse that trend. Labour figures now face the question of whether this will be the worst of it under Starmer, or a sign of further disasters to come.
