Labour is facing its worst ever result in Wales tomorrow, with Plaid Cymru and Reform UK sweeping the board, according to a YouGov megapoll. The final survey of the campaign found Keir Starmer's nightmare could become reality, as Labour's support plummets by two-thirds from the general election.
Projected Seats and Vote Share
Labour is on track to secure just 12 of the 96 seats up for grabs at the Senedd. Plaid Cymru is projected to win 43, while Nigel Farage's Reform UK would take 34. Such results would be a staggering fall from grace for Labour, which has held the First Minister post since devolution nearly 30 years ago. The party has come top in Wales at every election since 1922, before universal suffrage was introduced.
Welsh Labour leader Baroness Morgan, who has been highly critical of Sir Keir, could fail to secure her own seat. She complained that the prime minister 'comes up as an issue on the doorstep'. However, the central estimate in the YouGov research, conducted using the MRP method, would still probably see Labour in government, as Plaid would be just short of an outright majority.
Vote Share and System Sensitivity
Plaid Cymru appears to have consolidated its position since the firm's mid-April poll, which found them tied with Reform at 29 per cent support across Wales. Plaid is now seen on 33 per cent, with Reform on 29 per cent. YouGov stressed that the D'Hondt voting system used in Wales, with list and regional seats, is particularly sensitive to small shifts, so a range of outcomes are possible.
Blame Game and Final Plea
A blame game is already under way as Sir Keir makes a desperate final plea to voters. The PM has urged Brits not to follow the 'politics of anger' as he braces for disastrous results across Britain. Close ally Pat McFadden was deployed to broadcast studios this morning to make clear Sir Keir will fight any leadership challenge. But even as frantic campaigning continues, Welsh Labour chief Baroness Morgan admitted the party could lose control of the Senedd for the first time since devolution because the public wants to 'pick a fight' with Sir Keir.
