Sir Keir Starmer's political troubles are poised to intensify dramatically, following a stark new poll that suggests the Labour Party could slump to a dismal fourth-place finish in next year's Scottish Parliament elections.
Projected Holyrood Shake-Up
The seat projection, based on a survey by Find Out Now and analysed by renowned polling expert Professor John Curtice, paints a grim picture for Labour in Scotland. It indicates the SNP are on course to win 59 seats in the 2026 Holyrood election, just six short of an outright majority.
However, the pro-independence Scottish Greens are projected to secure 13 seats, potentially allowing the two parties to continue their governing arrangement and secure a fifth consecutive term in power.
The most startling revelation is the surge for Reform UK, which is projected to win 25 seats in Edinburgh, capitalising on a wave of support for Nigel Farage's party north of the border. This surge pushes both Labour and the Conservatives into a tie for joint-fourth place, with each projected to win just 12 seats.
Mounting Pressure on Starmer's Leadership
This projected disaster for Labour in Scotland, coupled with anticipated poor results in local elections across England and Wales in May, is fuelling expectations of a fresh attempt to oust Sir Keir Starmer. The Prime Minister is already grappling with intense speculation over his future following a turbulent first 18 months in government at Westminster.
Some Labour MPs in Scotland have reportedly warned Sir Keir directly that they could lead a move to topple him before May, fearing their party faces being 'slaughtered' at the Holyrood ballot box.
Comparing Past and Future Results
The contrast with recent elections is stark. In the 2021 Scottish Parliament contest, the results were:
- SNP: 64 seats
- Scottish Conservatives: 31 seats
- Scottish Labour: 22 seats
Although the SNP fell one seat short of a majority then, they governed via a power-sharing deal with the Scottish Greens until its collapse. They currently run a minority administration. Meanwhile, Reform UK holds just one seat at Holyrood, gained after former Tory MSP Graham Simpson defected in August 2024.
Westminster Implications
The Find Out Now poll, which surveyed 1,000 Scottish voters between 11 and 19 December for The National newspaper, also asked about Westminster voting intentions. It found the SNP leading on 32% support, with Reform on 24%, Labour on 13%, the Tories on 10%, and the Lib Dems on 8%.
Professor Curtice projects this would translate to 45 seats for the SNP in a UK general election, with the Lib Dems taking six, and Labour and the Tories winning just three seats each in Scotland. This represents a catastrophic collapse from Labour's performance at the 2024 general election, where they won 37 seats in Scotland, compared to the SNP's nine.
The poll findings solidify a narrative of profound challenge for Sir Keir Starmer, suggesting his party's recovery in Scotland has not only stalled but is in danger of a historic reversal, with significant consequences for both the Union and his own tenure in Number 10.
