Sir Sadiq Khan is on course to secure a fourth term as Mayor of London in the 2028 election, despite a surge in support for the Green Party, according to a new Savanta poll conducted for the Mile End Institute at Queen Mary University of London (QMUL). The survey shows Labour leading significantly in the mayoral race, with 33% of first-preference votes, followed by the Conservatives and Reform UK each at 18%, the Green Party at 17%, the Liberal Democrats at 9%, and other candidates at 6%.
Second Preference Votes Key to Victory
Under London's supplementary vote system, if no candidate wins more than 50% of first-preference votes, the top two candidates proceed to a final round where second preferences are counted. Dr Eoghan Kelly, a postdoctoral researcher in British politics at QMUL, stated: "This would amount to a Labour win after second preferences are counted." The Labour candidate would secure 40% of the vote in Inner London, more than double any other contender, and 29% in Outer London, ahead of Reform UK and the Conservatives, both on 19%.
Khan's Potential Fourth Term and Rivals
In February, Sir Sadiq gave his strongest indication yet that he may seek a fourth term in 2028, ruling out a return to the House of Commons. Speaking at the annual State of London debate in March, he said: "I will let you know as soon as I've decided – at the same time I make it in every cycle, which is probably year three." If he decides not to stand, potential Labour candidates include Brent East MP Dawn Butler, Justice Secretary David Lammy, and Tooting MP Rosena Allin-Khan. On the Conservative side, former London Assembly member Sir James Cleverly is the early frontrunner, with his experience as Home Secretary, Foreign Secretary, business owner, and army officer aligning with party leader Kemi Badenoch's criteria.
Reform UK and Green Party Dynamics
Reform UK's support has dipped 1% since the previous Savanta poll, despite having named Laila Cunningham as its mayoral candidate. Dr Kelly noted: "It is clear that Laila Cunningham's campaign has not yet broken through." The Green Party, led by Zack Polanski, is projected to finish second in first-preference votes, a significant achievement. Dr Kelly remarked: "The Greens finishing second would be an enormous achievement for Polanski's party."
London Assembly Projections
The poll also projects the outcome of a London Assembly election, with Labour winning 31% of the vote, the Greens 20%, Conservatives 18%, Reform UK 16%, Liberal Democrats 10%, and others 4%. Using the DevolvedElections.co.uk projection model, Dr Kelly estimates Labour would retain 11 seats, the Greens up to five, Conservatives four, Reform three, and Liberal Democrats two. "All their seats are expected to come on the list," he said of the Greens. Reform UK is close in the constituency seats of Bexley & Bromley and Havering & Redbridge; if they win either, it would mark the first time a party other than Labour, Conservatives, or Liberal Democrats has won a constituency seat in the assembly.
The survey was conducted online among 1,038 adult Londoners between 30 June and 8 July. Data are weighted.
