As the Republican Party looks beyond the era of Donald Trump, all eyes are turning to his vice president, JD Vance, and the critical question of whether he possesses the political strength to inherit the leadership of the MAGA movement.
The Frontrunner Emerges from CPAC
The groundwork for Vance's ascent was laid clearly at CPAC 2025. There, the MAGA-faithful crowd anointed him as their preferred standard-bearer in a decisive straw poll victory, branding him the obvious successor as Trump's second term began. Nearly a year later, that momentum persists. Vance is consistently discussed alongside Secretary of State Marco Rubio as a central power player within the administration and a prominent figure on the GOP's bench of future candidates.
This speculation is fuelled by more than just ambition. With President Trump, already the oldest to serve, approaching his 80th birthday in June 2026, the party's base is acutely aware of the need for a new champion. Voters may be willing to support Trump for a third time, but the constitutional term limit bars him from running in 2028. Furthermore, concerns about the president's health and stamina, highlighted by reported moments of fatigue and distraction during his second term, have led some to wonder if his tenure could be cut short, potentially thrusting Vance into the top job even sooner.
Vance's Calculated Rise and Political Battles
While the White House dismisses rumours about Trump's capacity, Vice President Vance has strategically navigated his role. Unlike his predecessor Kamala Harris, who was often sidelined on difficult issues, Vance has maintained a highly public profile. He frequently appears alongside Trump and acts as the administration's chief media defender, clashing relentlessly with left-leaning commentators on social media and in interviews.
His duties have placed him at the heart of contentious political fights. He recently led the forceful defence of an ICE agent involved in a fatal shooting in Minnesota, doubling down on the administration's claim that the woman was attempting to ram officers. Vance has also been a key figure in managing diplomatic tensions over Greenland, employing his rhetorical skills to smooth over relations after Trump's aggressive territorial comments, all while holding the official line.
He has not shied away from foreign policy, visiting Israel in the autumn of 2025 as the White House pushed for a ceasefire in Gaza. This visible, combative approach is a deliberate audition for the future, with Trump seemingly unthreatened by his vice president's growing prominence.
The Internal MAGA Challenge and the Charisma Question
Despite his frontrunner status, Vance's path is not unchallenged. A significant threat comes from within the movement's ideological ranks. Steve Bannon, the former Trump strategist and influential podcast host, is reportedly preparing his own 2028 bid. According to Axios, Bannon's primary aim is to block any candidate he views as insufficiently committed to a "non-interventionist foreign policy, economic populism and opposition to Big Tech."
Bannon has directly targeted Vance and Rubio, accusing them of being allied with Silicon Valley figures like Peter Thiel and David Sacks, whom he sees as threats to the MAGA agenda on issues like immigration. "They're owned by the broligarchs," Bannon said of the pair in November 2025. This internal critique highlights a potential vulnerability for Vance: while he may have institutional support, he must consolidate the party's populist, anti-establishment wing.
The ultimate question may hinge on Vance's personal political appeal. Polling suggests that, while respected, he does not yet command the same level of instinctive confidence from MAGA voters on signature issues like immigration as Trump does. His success will depend on his ability to project charismatic authority and deepen his connection with the base over the next three years.
If he continues to position himself at the centre of the action, his proximity to Trump and his high-profile role will make him exceptionally formidable in a 2028 Republican primary. The stage is set for a prolonged, public audition—a real-world version of The Apprentice that could decide the fate of the MAGA movement long before the first primary vote is cast.
