Texas is set for one of the ugliest primary elections of the year as scandal-hit Attorney General Ken Paxton faces four-term incumbent John Cornyn in a Republican Senate runoff on Tuesday. The winner will contest November's general election against Democrat James Talarico, a state legislator with growing popularity who could become the first Democrat to win statewide office in Texas in over 30 years.
The race has been dominated by the pursuit of Donald Trump's endorsement, which Paxton secured last week, with the former president calling him a 'true Maga warrior'. Paxton, who has been impeached and indicted, is seen as a far-right hardliner, while Cornyn represents the old-guard Republican establishment, pragmatic and business-friendly, akin to the Bush family legacy.
Despite similar voting records on policy, the runoff is more about style and the future direction of the Republican party. Cornyn, a former state attorney general and supreme court justice, is viewed as a 'calm, serious, problem-oriented politician' who has worked across the aisle, including on a bipartisan gun safety bill after the Uvalde massacre. This willingness to govern has made him a target for the Maga movement.
Paxton, described as 'Donald Trump before Donald Trump', has pioneered grievance-fuelled, anti-establishment politics. His aggressive stances on immigration and culture war issues appeal to the party's base. However, his legal troubles could jeopardise the seat against Talarico, who has a groundswell of support and could shift Texas politics for a generation.
Political analysts warn that a Paxton victory would continue Trump's winning streak but risk handing a Senate seat to Democrats. The race has huge implications for Texas, control of the US Senate, and the Republican party's direction.
