Cabinet ministers have cautioned mutinous Labour MPs that any attempt to remove Keir Starmer in the wake of this week's expected poor local election results would unleash chaos on the party that would not be easily overcome. Several ministers told the Guardian that although the prime minister was determined to remain in Downing Street, the mood on the backbenches was febrile and events could still spiral out of control.
Labour is projected to lose more than 1,500 council seats in England, face a struggle for second place in Scotland, and risk losing Wales after a century of dominance, leaving thousands of angry local politicians who see themselves as victims of the government's unpopularity. Speculation over Starmer's future has intensified, with Angela Rayner, Wes Streeting and Andy Burnham – despite Burnham not being eligible – touted as likely successors. Some MPs have argued that Starmer should set out a timetable for his departure, and suggested that a group of cabinet ministers might tell him his time was up if the results are as bad as predicted.
However, the appetite inside the cabinet for a leadership contest appears severely limited, even among those who believe Starmer will step down before the 2029 general election. One minister said: “We have a role to play and we’ll certainly not want chaos. That’s not in anybody’s interests.” Another indicated there was no group planning to move collectively, while a third remarked: “I don’t want new leaders, plots, pacts, talk of orderly transitions which shut out the public. Will there be cabinet resignations or a move against Keir? There could be, but I won’t be part of it.” A fourth insisted that only Starmer would decide when he stood down, saying: “He’s in no mood to be pushed around by colleagues. He’s not daft, he knows we need to improve our polling position.”
Several ministers warned of unintended consequences. One said: “Those of us who are sane don’t really want a leadership contest or a timetable for Keir’s departure that undermines the party’s position, but we recognise that when the mood is febrile things can kick off. We wouldn’t be thanked for picking our own leader three years out from the next election. It’s not that things are perfect, it’s just that it’s premature.” Neither Rayner nor Streeting is thought likely to move first, with allies suggesting they would only enter a contest triggered by somebody else. Rayner also still has to resolve her tax affairs. Members of Labour’s national executive committee do not believe there is a route for Burnham back to parliament, despite weekend reports, while Ed Miliband is said to be more likely to act as kingmaker for Burnham than to mount his own bid, with one friend saying he was determined to prevent Streeting from becoming leader.
Downing Street has made clear that Starmer would fight any attempt to oust him, with allies warning that any challenge would cause instability, particularly amid difficult economic headwinds. They also played down the prospect of a reshuffle, suggesting one would only occur if ministers resigned after the election results. Writing in the Observer at the weekend, Starmer said: “We have a choice. We could sink into the politics of grievance and division. Or we could rise to this moment – together – in a national effort that matches the scale of the threats and turbulence we face.” He contrasted this with the previous government, which he said descended into political infighting after Covid rather than building on the national spirit.
