The unexpected blocking of Andy Burnham from the ballot has thrown the upcoming Gorton and Denton by-election into a state of heightened uncertainty and political intrigue. This development fundamentally reshapes the contest for what was once considered a safe Labour seat, transforming it into a volatile three-way marginal where Reform UK and the Greens are now positioned as significant challengers.
A Vacant Ballot and a Political Scramble
Scheduled for February 26, the by-election is now a wide-open race. With the prominent figure of Andy Burnham removed from contention, all major parties are urgently reassessing their strategies and candidate line-ups. This vacancy has created a rare opportunity for smaller parties to make a substantial impact in a key Manchester constituency.
Reform UK's Confident Entry
Nigel Farage has publicly stated that his party's candidate will be in with a 'serious shout' for victory, promising to field a 'big name' contender. Reform UK is set to unveil its candidate for the Manchester seat imminently. Widespread speculation suggests Zia Yusuf, the party's head of policy and a former chairman, is actively considering standing. As a prominent member yet to secure a parliamentary seat, his candidacy would signal Reform's serious intent.
Another potential Reform candidate is former Conservative Dan Barker. Notably, Barker was selected as the Tory candidate for the Manchester mayoralty in 2023 but dramatically defected to Reform just fifteen days before nominations closed, highlighting the fluid and unpredictable nature of current political allegiances.
Labour's Search for a Successor
Within the Labour Party, the search for a replacement candidate is underway. According to journalist Michael Crick, one potential contender is Julie Reid, a councillor for Gorton and Abbey Hey, which falls within the constituency boundaries. The former teacher is believed to have already submitted her application to stand.
Crick also reported that Eamonn O'Brien, the Labour leader of Bury Council, has applied for selection. While the party's longlist was due to be finalised, Labour officials are unlikely to publish any names publicly until a formal shortlist is decided upon, maintaining an air of secrecy around their selection process.
The Greens Emerge as Surprise Favourites
In a remarkable shift, some bookmakers have now installed the Green Party as favourites to win the seat, with Reform UK placed second and Labour surprisingly relegated to third position. This polling reflects the significant upheaval caused by Burnham's absence and the changing dynamics of the constituency.
The Greens are preparing to field a strong candidate, with deputy leader Mothin Ali reportedly considering putting himself forward. Ali, a Leeds councillor, has previously attracted attention for a video posted on the morning of the Hamas attacks in October 2023, in which he stated all people had a right to 'fight back against occupiers'.
Meanwhile, Salford-born Green Party leader Zack Polanski is said to have decided against standing personally. However, he has vowed to campaign extensively in his 'home city', indicating the party will invest considerable resources in the battle for Gorton and Denton.
A Microcosm of National Political Shifts
This by-election has rapidly evolved into a microcosm of the broader political realignments occurring across the United Kingdom. The traditional two-party dominance is being challenged by insurgent movements, and the outcome in Gorton and Denton could provide crucial insights into voter sentiment ahead of a potential general election.
The blocking of a high-profile candidate like Andy Burnham has not only created a vacancy but has also amplified the stakes, ensuring that all eyes will be on Manchester come February 26th.
