Bolivians are voting in a presidential runoff on Sunday that will mark a definitive shift to the right after nearly two decades of leftist government under the Movimiento al Socialismo (Mas). The election pits centre-right senator Rodrigo Paz Pereira, 58, who won the first round in August, against former rightwing president Jorge 'Tuto' Quiroga, 65, who has overtaken his rival in recent polls.
Mas’s candidate, interior minister Eduardo del Castillo, secured just 3% of the vote in the first round, signalling the collapse of support for the party that has governed since Evo Morales’s 2005 victory. The new president will take office on 8 November, facing Bolivia’s worst economic crisis in 40 years, with annual inflation at 25%, a chronic shortage of US dollars, and long fuel queues.
Both candidates are betting on closer ties with the United States. US Secretary of State Marco Rubio described the election as 'one of the most promising developments' in Latin America, noting both candidates seek better relations. A key issue in any rapprochement will be coca cultivation, as the Trump administration pursues a more aggressive drug policy in South America.
Bolivia’s rightward turn could revive the 'war on drugs' and alter policy on coca, a plant used traditionally but also the base for cocaine. Quiroga has said coca from the Yungas region is legal and traditional, while that from the Chapare—where Morales is entrenched with an arrest warrant for statutory rape—has 'a single purpose: drug trafficking'. Paz Pereira has echoed this distinction, calling Yungas coca 'good' and Chapare coca 'bad'.
Morales expelled the US Drug Enforcement Administration (DEA) in 2008, but criminologist Gabriela Reyes Rodas said the DEA’s return could be a condition for US loans. The Chapare has become a lawless area where state authority is minimal, and police and military have been absent for months after attacks by Morales supporters.
Despite the focus on illegal trafficking, the CSCIOB union representing indigenous people and coca growers argues that most Chapare production is for personal use, with logistical problems preventing it from reaching the regulated market. The union says any diversion to trafficking is reported to authorities.
