Whispers that the 200-year-old Conservative Party is on its deathbed have grown into a roar following May's local election wipeout and the relentless rise of Nigel Farage's Reform UK. But senior political analysts now argue that declaring the Tories extinct is a deliberate political tactic, one that risks backfiring by galvanising the party's remaining supporters.
The 'Death Spiral' Narrative and Its Architects
The narrative took hold after the Conservatives suffered devastating losses in the May local elections. Nigel Farage, whose Reform party has broken the historic duopoly of Britain's two main parties, proclaimed the results marked "the beginning of the end" for the Tories. This was echoed by former Conservative cabinet minister Justine Greening, who wrote in the Guardian that the party was as deceased as Monty Python's famous parrot, having "ceased to be."
This week, Farage intensified his attacks. According to the Financial Times, he has been telling donors he expects a deal or merger with the Conservatives before the next general election, describing such an agreement as "inevitable"—a claim both sides firmly deny. In what the Telegraph called his "most significant attack" yet, Farage urged voters not to trust Tory leader Kemi Badenoch and to remember her party's record on tax rises, welfare spending, and net zero rules.
A Strategic 'Devil's Pact' That May Be Unravelling
Giles Dilnot, editor of ConservativeHome, posits that Labour and Reform entered separate, unspoken "devil's pacts" last year. He argues Labour decided to treat Reform as the sole opposition, while Reform ignored the Tories to target left-leaning votes, especially in the red wall. This strategy was predicated on the false idea that the Conservatives hadn't changed since 2024.
"It worked for a while," Dilnot admits, citing raw public anger, a lack of new policies, and Badenoch's initially poor performance at Prime Minister's Questions. However, he contends the party has since evolved, making the tactic of writing it off increasingly unsound.
Guardian senior political correspondent Peter Walker notes that while some Tory MPs remain "bullish," others have privately confessed the party is in a "death spiral." Current polling places the Conservatives at around 18%—"as bad as it's ever been"—and just points away from fifth place in a fragmented political landscape. "We've never seen such atomisation before," Walker observes.
Why Declaring the Tories Dead Could Be Counter-Productive
Dilnot questions the motive behind the persistent obituaries. "The Tories have got a mountain to climb, but the idea that they're dead and therefore irrelevant poses the question: why would you bother if you really believed they were dead and out of the camp?"
He suggests the more "pantomime" the attacks from figures like Farage become, the less truthful they are. "They are saying the party is dead because they need that to be true, and they need people to believe it to be true," Dilnot argues. Instead of finishing the Tories off, he believes this rhetoric "fires up people who are Tories and remain Tories to go: 'All right, we'll show you whether we're dead or not.'"
Badenoch's Resurgence and the Long Game
Badenoch's position has notably strengthened in recent months. Entering the October party conference, many assumed she could face a leadership challenge after the 2026 local elections. Now, "Keir Starmer is more likely to go first," quips Peter Walker.
While national polling figures remain dire, Badenoch has found her footing at PMQs and exhibits a "spring in her step." Many Conservatives believe time is on their side, expecting voters to scrutinise Reform's policies more closely as the next election approaches. "From that point of view, it will be interesting, because with more scrutiny, Reform have to come up with policies showing that they could actually run government," Walker notes.
The party still faces profound structural issues, including an ageing voter base and a shortage of activists. However, there is a keen desire to avoid the chaotic infighting that characterised the party's final years in government, making a stable leadership under Badenoch a priority.
The Spectre of a Deal: Inevitable or Inconceivable?
The prospect of an electoral pact between the Conservatives and Reform remains a central point of speculation. Dilnot is unequivocal: "You won't find a single Tory at the moment, who's asking for this or discussing it." He asks, "Why would you sit down and do a deal with people who want to destroy you?" and highlights the personal animosity between Farage and Badenoch.
Walker emphasises the "uncharted" political territory Britain now occupies. A combination of Conservative and Reform MPs could theoretically command a majority, or the country could see a Labour-Lib Dem-Green coalition. A formal coalition like the 2010 Conservative-Lib Dem government is considered less likely, with a "confidence and supply" arrangement—where a party supports a minority government without joining it—a more probable outcome.
Dilnot references a ConservativeHome survey which found that many party members believe a deal of some kind would be inevitable if Nigel Farage became Prime Minister. "What it doesn't tell you," he stresses, "is if that's what they want."
As Westminster navigates this fragmented new era, the declaration of the Conservative Party's death appears to be less a statement of fact and more a weapon in a high-stakes political war—one that could ultimately motivate the very voters it seeks to dismiss.
