Fresh waves of protest have swept through Iran's capital, Tehran, with demonstrators gathering and vehicles set alight as evolving anti-government unrest continues to challenge the Islamic Republic. The scenes, captured in videos shared on social media, underscore the deepening crisis facing the regime as it confronts simultaneous internal dissent and external pressures.
Economic Despair Fuels Widespread Discontent
The latest round of demonstrations, which ignited in late December, was initially sparked by rocketing inflation and a plummeting national currency. These economic grievances have since broadened, transforming into a more widespread movement with political undertones. By Thursday night, footage showed thousands marching through Tehran, with some participants setting fire to cars and state-owned buildings.
While the current protests are smaller in scale than the peak of the 2022 Woman, Life, Freedom movement, analysts note a significant shift: this unrest began in segments of society traditionally more supportive of the regime. The speed of escalation has been notable, with some protesters now explicitly calling for the government's fall.
A Regime Hardens Its Stance Amid Crackdown
The authorities have responded with a familiar playbook of repression. An internet blackout has been imposed across the country, aiming to stifle the spread of protests and obscure the severity of the state's response from outside observers. Non-governmental organisations report that dozens of people, including children, have already been killed in the crackdown.
Initially, the Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, who is 86 and has suffered health issues, acknowledged some "legitimate" economic demands. His tone has since hardened considerably. He now labels protesters "saboteurs" allegedly seeking to please former US President Donald Trump. This shift followed Trump's threat to intervene and "hit hard" if more demonstrators died. Echoing this aggressive stance, the head of Iran's judiciary promised consequences for demonstrators would be "decisive, maximum and without any legal leniency".
Internal Weakness Meets External Threats
The regime faces a precarious confluence of challenges. Its economic tools are severely limited, and its foundational promise of security has been shattered for many Iranians. The belief that the state could provide physical safety was severely damaged by June’s 12-day war with Israel and US attacks on nuclear facilities, coming atop long-standing economic failure.
Internationally, the situation is fraught. Trump's threats, following his administration's actions in Venezuela, have provided the Iranian leadership with a propaganda tool to delegitimise domestic grievances as foreign-inspired. Meanwhile, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's comments cheering on the protesters have raised fears that external powers may seek to exploit the chaos, a scenario that could lead to greater regional instability and suffering for Iranian civilians.
Iran's defence council has signalled it could take preemptive military action if it perceives a threat from the US or Israel, indicating the region is entering a riskier and more volatile era. The path forward offers no easy exits. While the regime has historically crushed protests, it has failed to solve their root causes. Any foreign intervention cynically exploiting Iranian suffering risks only compounding the tragedy with further bloodshed.
