The head of the United Nations refugee agency in Lebanon has stated that the recent decision by the United States to permanently lift sweeping sanctions on Syria could act as a catalyst for more refugees to return home.
Sanctions Lifted as Part of Defence Bill
The U.S. Senate voted on Wednesday to permanently repeal the stringent Caesar Act sanctions. This legislative action was included within the country's annual defence spending bill. The sanctions had been initially imposed in 2019 to penalise the regime of Bashar al-Assad for human rights atrocities during Syria's protracted civil war.
While former President Donald Trump had temporarily suspended the penalties via an executive order, the Senate's vote makes the repeal permanent. President Trump is anticipated to sign the final bill into law on Thursday.
Returning Refugees Face Daunting Challenges
Karolina Lindholm Billing, the UNHCR Representative in Lebanon, provided context on the current refugee situation. She reported that an estimated 400,000 Syrian refugees have returned from Lebanon since the ouster of Assad in December 2024, which concluded a nearly 14-year conflict. However, around 1 million Syrians remain in Lebanon, with approximately 636,000 officially registered with the UN agency.
Globally, the UN notes that over 1 million refugees and close to 2 million internally displaced persons have gone back to their areas of origin since the war's end.
Returnees are eligible for a cash assistance payment of $600 per family. Yet, this sum provides limited relief for many who come back to demolished homes and a severe lack of employment. "Without jobs and reconstruction, many may leave again," the situation report suggests.
Billing emphasised that international aid for rebuilding has so far been "relatively small scale compared to the immense needs." The World Bank estimates a staggering $216 billion is required to repair the nation's shattered homes and infrastructure.
Investment and Jobs Key to Sustainable Returns
The permanent lifting of U.S. sanctions is viewed as a potential game-changer. "So what is needed now is big money in terms of reconstruction and private sector investments in Syria that will create jobs," Billing said, adding that the sanctions repeal could "make a big difference" in encouraging such investment.
Advocates for the repeal had long argued that the persistent threat of sanctions resuming deterred international companies from engaging in the large-scale projects necessary for Syria's recovery.
New Refugee Influx and Ongoing Sectarian Fears
Despite the steady flow of returnees, the period following Assad's fall has also seen new displacement. About 112,000 Syrians have fled to Lebanon since December 2024, according to Billing.
Many of these new arrivals are from religious minorities, including Alawites and Shiites, who fear reprisal attacks from Islamist-led insurgents now in power. Hundreds of Alawite civilians were killed in sectarian violence on Syria's coast in March, and while tensions have eased, sporadic attacks continue.
These new refugees face acute difficulties. Arriving during a period of shrinking international aid, they receive minimal assistance and largely lack legal status in Lebanon. "Their main need... is documentation because they have no paper to prove that they are in Lebanon, which makes it difficult for them to move around," Billing explained.
While some have returned after calm returned to their home regions, "Many are very afraid of being returned to Syria because what they fled were very violent events," she concluded.
