The Unpredictable Path of the US-Iran War
War, once unleashed, can produce all manner of unintended consequences, including some that prove uncontrollable and enduring. This stark reality underscores the escalating conflict between the United States and Iran, a situation that has rapidly evolved into a regional crisis with no clear end in sight.
Trump's Justification and Failed Diplomacy
In recent addresses, including his State of the Union and prior to launching Operation Epic Fear, President Donald Trump outlined a comprehensive indictment against Iran's Islamic Republic. He cited historical grievances such as the 1979 embassy takeover, support for terrorism, domestic brutality, and proxy attacks on Americans. Emphasizing the nuclear threat, Trump warned of Iran developing missiles capable of reaching the US homeland, despite lacking confirmed intelligence.
Despite labeling Iran's government as "evil," Trump initially pursued diplomacy, sending envoys to Geneva for nuclear talks. Over three rounds, Iran made significant concessions, including reducing uranium enrichment below 3.67%, allowing full international inspections, and agreeing not to accumulate enriched uranium. Omani mediator Badr Albusaidi confirmed these unprecedented offers, which Trump could have claimed as a victory over the Obama-era deal.
The True Motive: Regime Change
However, Trump's real ambition appears to be the downfall of the Islamic Republic. During January's protests in Iran, he urged citizens to "take over your institutions," promising assistance. After joint US-Israeli airstrikes, he repeated calls for Iranians to seize control, echoing Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's similar appeals. This suggests the nuclear talks were merely a procedural step, not a genuine effort at resolution, as regime change remained the ultimate goal.
Iran's leadership, now under direct attack including the killing of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, is fighting back fiercely. Realizing Trump's intent, they refuse to capitulate, escalating the conflict regionally.
Regional Escalation and Global Implications
The war has expanded beyond US-Iran borders, with Iran targeting American-aligned Arab states like Bahrain, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and the UAE—all hosting US military facilities—to pressure Trump into a ceasefire. Retaliatory missile strikes on Israel have further inflamed tensions. Iran may escalate by blocking the Strait of Hormuz, threatening 20% of global oil supplies and sending shockwaves through worldwide markets.
Trump and Netanyahu gamble on mass Iranian uprisings to overthrow clerical rule, but history shows Iran's security forces respond brutally to protests. Trump's offer of immunity to Revolutionary Guards and police may fail, as many could remain loyal to the regime. While many Iranians oppose their government, it retains some support beyond mere fear.
The Risks of Regime Change and Uncontrollable Consequences
Without deploying ground troops, the US and Israel rely on air strikes and calls for civilian revolt, effectively using unarmed Iranians as proxies. If regime change occurs, stability is not guaranteed. Past US interventions in Iraq, Libya, and Afghanistan led to anarchy, violence, refugee crises, and terrorism spread.
Iran, larger than France, Germany, and Spain combined with 93 million diverse people, sits on critical energy routes. A power vacuum could trigger internal turmoil, spilling instability across the Middle East and disrupting global energy markets. The consequences could surpass earlier regime change upheavals, with enduring regional and international fallout.
No one, including American and Israeli policymakers, can predict this war's trajectory. As Rajan Menon and Daniel R. DePetris highlight, unleashed conflicts breed uncontrollable and lasting effects, reminding us of the profound dangers in this escalating crisis.
