President Donald Trump's critical decision regarding potential airstrikes against Iran will be significantly influenced by the assessments of his special envoys, Jared Kushner and Steve Witkoff, according to individuals with direct knowledge of the matter. The envoys' judgment on whether Iran is deliberately delaying a nuclear agreement will play a pivotal role in shaping the president's final calculus.
High-Stakes Negotiations and Military Considerations
The administration is preparing for Iran to submit its latest proposal this week, ahead of what officials describe as a final round of negotiations scheduled for Thursday in Geneva. These talks will be led by Witkoff and Kushner, whose evaluation of the likelihood of securing a deal will directly inform Trump's decision-making process.
If a nuclear agreement is not reached, Trump has informed advisers that he is considering limited airstrikes to exert pressure on Iran. Should that approach fail, a far more extensive military attack aimed at forcing regime change is also under contemplation.
Key Advisers and Internal Debates
Trump has received multiple briefings on military options, including a recent session in the White House Situation Room. He has also sought input from a broad range of senior officials in recent weeks. The primary advisers involved include Vice-President JD Vance, Secretary of State Marco Rubio, CIA Director John Ratcliffe, Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth, General Dan Caine, White House Chief of Staff Susie Wiles, and Director of National Intelligence Tulsi Gabbard.
Vance has presented both sides of the argument for airstrikes but has expressed concerns about the potential risks. He has been notably less confident about the success of attacking Iran compared to previous operations, such as the capture of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro.
General Caine's apprehensions focus on the limited stockpile of anti-missile systems. Following Trump's airstrikes on Iran's nuclear sites last year, the US deployed thirty Patriot missiles to intercept Iranian counterattacks, marking the largest single use of such missiles in American history.
Iran's Retaliation Threats and Military Buildup
Iran has vowed to retaliate with maximum force against any US attack, with Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei warning last week of the capability to sink a US warship. In response, the US has assembled its largest concentration of air power in the Middle East since the 2003 invasion of Iraq.
The USS Gerald Ford, the US Navy's most advanced aircraft carrier, is expected to arrive in the region within days, joining dozens of advanced F-35 and F-22 fighter jets, bombers, and refueling aircraft already deployed. This buildup provides Trump with the option of sustaining an extended air campaign rather than limited strikes.
Diplomatic Off-Ramps and Hardening Positions
Amid the tensions, administration officials have explored potential diplomatic solutions to avoid military conflict. Ideas under discussion include allowing Iran to maintain limited nuclear enrichment capabilities strictly for medical research, treatment, or civilian energy purposes.
However, positions appear to be hardening ahead of the final negotiating session. Witkoff stated on Fox News that Trump's directive is to ensure Iran retains zero nuclear enrichment capability, while Iran's Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi asserted on CBS that Tehran is not prepared to relinquish enrichment.
Secretary of State Rubio is scheduled to travel to Israel to update President Benjamin Netanyahu on the outcome of the negotiations, highlighting the international dimensions of this crisis. The White House has emphasized that General Caine provides unbiased information to the Commander in Chief, without offering personal views, amid internal speculation about his vocal concerns within the Pentagon.
