Trump's Astonishing Reversal on Chagos Deal Stuns Downing Street
Political editor David Maddox was present in the Oval Office when Donald Trump initially gave his blessing to Sir Keir Starmer's controversial plan regarding the Chagos Islands. Now, the US president has executed a dramatic U-turn, labelling the UK's agreement to transfer the islands, including the vital Diego Garcia airbase, to Mauritius as an "act of great stupidity." This abrupt shift has sent shockwaves through Downing Street and poses significant questions about the deteriorating relationship between the two leaders.
The Oval Office Accord: A Foundation Now Shattered
In February of last year, during Sir Keir Starmer's first meeting with President Trump, a pivotal moment occurred. Shortly after the Prime Minister extended an invitation for a historic second state visit from King Charles, Trump was questioned by reporters on the Chagos plan. Contrary to expectations of scepticism or even a veto—given the strategic importance of Diego Garcia for both nations—the president responded positively. "I have a feeling it is going to work out very well. I think we will be inclined to go along with your country," Trump stated, despite lobbying against the deal from figures like Nigel Farage.
This verbal assurance was later solidified in May by a formal agreement from US Secretary of State Marco Rubio, effectively paving the way for the Labour government to proceed. The core issues surrounding the deal—including the staggering £30 billion cost to the UK taxpayer, the fate of the Chagossian people, parliamentary delays, and concerns over nuclear weapons on the islands—were largely known at the time. Yet, Trump's support seemed unwavering.
Unravelling the Motives Behind the Spectacular U-Turn
So, what prompted such a spectacular reversal? While persistent lobbying from deal opponents has undoubtedly continued, a more compelling explanation lies in the escalating row over Greenland. President Trump now appears to grasp that the same principles of international law used to justify Mauritius's claim to the Chagos Islands could theoretically challenge Denmark's sovereignty over Greenland. His recent bellicose rhetoric and tariff threats aimed at acquiring the Danish territory suggest this connection has become a personal grievance.
The Labour government's argument that it is bound by international law to hand over the Chagos Islands is unlikely to resonate with this White House. In fact, such legalistic reasoning may only intensify Trump's focus on the Greenland issue, perceived as a parallel case.
The Erosion of the 'Trump Whisperer' and Its Implications
This development strikes at the heart of Sir Keir Starmer's carefully cultivated international reputation as the "Trump whisperer." The Prime Minister had previously secured US cooperation on several fronts, including a favourable trade deal and the Chagos agreement. However, Trump's latest comments signal a potentially serious deterioration in a relationship already strained by ideological distance.
If Starmer's influence over the capricious US president is indeed waning, it represents bad news for Britain's foreign policy. The Prime Minister's strategy has largely been to act as a bridge between the United States and Europe. The removal of that diplomatic conduit would significantly weaken the UK's global standing. Even the prospect of a reciprocal state visit by King Charles to the US now appears insufficient to temper Trump's stance.
A New Front in a Growing Diplomatic Conflict
The Prime Minister did garner some praise yesterday for standing up to Trump in defence of NATO ally Denmark during an emergency press conference. However, Trump, not known for his capacity to forgive, has evidently interpreted this as a betrayal. His remarks on the Chagos Islands have opened a new front in what is rapidly escalating into a hostile and unpredictable diplomatic conflict between two of the world's oldest allies.
