Prime Minister Keir Starmer is poised to walk into a diplomatic bear trap in Beijing, with the recent conviction of British citizen and publisher Jimmy Lai in Hong Kong casting a long shadow over his planned January trade mission. The UK's push for Lai's release, led by Foreign Secretary Yvette Cooper who condemned the trial as "politically motivated", was met with contempt from Beijing, highlighting a stark power imbalance.
A Conviction That Challenges UK Values
The case centres on Jimmy Lai, the founder of the now-closed Apple Daily newspaper and a prominent figure in Hong Kong's pro-democracy movement. On 18 April 2020, Lai was arrested at his Hong Kong home. Last week, he was found guilty by Beijing-appointed judges on what the UK government views as fabricated charges of conspiring to "destabilise" the Chinese Communist Party (CCP).
This verdict represents a direct challenge to British values and interests, coming after China broke its solemn promise to uphold Hong Kong's freedoms post the 1997 handover. For Prime Minister Starmer, who has described improving relations with China as a "duty", the conviction creates a sombre backdrop for his intended focus on trade and business in Shanghai and Beijing.
The High-Stakes Balancing Act: Trade vs. Security
Starmer's government, facing a stagnant economy, sees significant opportunity in China. Chancellor Rachel Reeves has pointed to a potential £1bn opportunity for jobs and growth. However, the security costs of engaging with Beijing's authoritarian regime are mounting and becoming impossible to ignore.
MI5 warns that Chinese intelligence routinely targets UK businesses, parliament, and MPs. A recent cyber-attack on the Foreign Office, reportedly by China, is just the latest in a series of hostile acts. The Commons Intelligence and Security Committee has criticised the government for "dragging its heels" in formally designating China as a major national security threat.
The regime's challenges extend far beyond espionage. They include human rights abuses in Xinjiang and Tibet, military threats towards Taiwan, support for Russia's war in Ukraine, and aggressive trade policies like subsidised steel dumping. China's ambition is to replace the international rules-based order with a system it dominates.
A Naive Strategy of Separation
Starmer's approach appears to be one of compartmentalisation: attempting to separate trade from politics and security. He has argued that "protecting our security is non-negotiable" but enables cooperation in other areas. This is viewed by critics as dangerously naive.
In an authoritarian state like China, the security apparatus, economy, and the CCP are inextricably linked. Any trade deal struck by Starmer will have inherent national security implications, a lesson learned when a previous UK government banned Huawei from the 5G network. Beijing itself is demonstrating this intersection by reportedly making Starmer's visit contingent on UK approval for a new fortress-like embassy near Tower Bridge by mid-January.
Starmer's vulnerability in seeking post-Brexit trade deals has been exposed before. His £31bn US-UK "tech prosperity deal" with the Trump administration was recently reneged upon, showing how economic needs can become entangled with the politics of unpredictable authoritarians.
A Path Forward: Prioritising Democratic Allies
All is not lost. A clear geopolitical alternative exists. Instead of courting hostile regimes in Beijing and Washington, the UK could and should energetically rebuild ties with democratic allies in Europe. On shared security threats, economic challenges, and upholding democratic values, Europe remains Britain's natural home.
As a principle for navigating this complex world, Starmer should follow a simple rule: hug friends close and know your enemy. In this spirit, a firm condition for any Beijing visit should be the prior release of Jimmy Lai. To ignore this provocation is to undermine UK sovereignty, national self-respect, and the very liberal democratic model Britain claims to champion.
