Vladimir Putin's dramatic dismissal of a US-backed peace proposal for Ukraine and his recent threats of a wider European war are part of a deliberate strategy to influence American policy and pressure President Donald Trump, intelligence analysts have exclusively revealed.
The Rejected Deal and Moscow's Greater Ambitions
President Trump faced significant international embarrassment after the Russian leader publicly torpedoed his much-promoted 28-point plan to end the conflict. The proposed deal, which critics argued was already skewed in Moscow's favour, would have compelled Ukraine to permanently cede the regions of Crimea, Luhansk, and Donetsk to Russia.
It also involved the United States entering direct economic negotiations with the Kremlin while offering only weak security guarantees to Kyiv. However, Putin's ambitions extend far beyond this framework. The Kremlin's ultimate goals are understood to include the full absorption of eastern Ukraine into Russia and a legally binding block on the country ever joining the NATO alliance.
A Strategy of 'Strength Signalling' and Division
According to Karan Vassil, an intelligence analyst for Eurasia at the risk firm Sibylline, the Russian strategy is multifaceted. "The Kremlin is likely to continue exaggerating its battlefield progress to influence US decision-making and push Donald Trump towards accepting peace terms aligned with Russia's objectives," Vassil stated.
He explained that Moscow is betting on Western allies experiencing growing "aid fatigue," thereby increasing Russia's chances of securing its territorial and political aims, potentially by 2026. Furthermore, Putin's recent bellicose rhetoric about confronting European nations is seen less as a genuine declaration of intent and more as a tactical manoeuvre.
"These threats are mostly a form of strength signalling intended to sow divisions within the EU and deter the bloc from further supporting Ukraine’s war effort," Vassil added.
Economic Pressures and the Kremlin's 'Black Box'
Despite the bold front, experts point to underlying vulnerabilities in Russia's position. Maxim Alyukov, a political sociologist and Russia expert at the University of Manchester, noted that while Russia's war economy has so far allowed it to dismiss external calls for peace, significant strains are emerging.
"Economic pressures are building, oil and gas revenues are volatile, and the budget deficit is growing," Alyukov said. He argued that a full-scale conflict with Europe would shatter this fragile equilibrium, as Russia lacks the financial and military capacity to sustain a multi-front war.
The talk of wider conflict, therefore, serves to project resolve and create an illusion of limitless escalation capability, especially when traditional diplomatic norms no longer constrain the Kremlin. Alyukov concluded with a note of caution, acknowledging the opacity of Moscow's inner circle: "We do not really know what is happening inside the black box of the Kremlin’s decision-making."
Meanwhile, Putin appears to continue cultivating influence through Trump's special envoy, Steve Witkoff, stringing along American diplomacy in pursuit of Russian interests under the guise of securing a lasting peace, even as Russian state media openly discusses imperial ambitions in Eastern Europe.
