Iran's New Supreme Leader: A Hereditary Succession Amidst Devastation
The irony is stark: nearly five decades after the Islamic Revolution overthrew Iran's hereditary shah, the late Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, killed in an airstrike on the conflict's first day, has been succeeded by his own son. Draped in clerical robes with a greying beard, 56-year-old Mojtaba Khamenei bears a striking resemblance to his father, though he has yet to make a public appearance before a populace enduring a brutal ten-day US-Israeli bombing campaign that, reports indicate, has already demolished 10,000 buildings across Iran.
Trump's Embarrassment and Miscalculation
On the surface, Khamenei's appointment is deeply embarrassing for Donald Trump. Just five days prior, the US President labelled him an 'unacceptable' successor, declaring, 'I have to be involved in the appointment, like with Delcy,' referencing Delcy Rodriguez, who replaced Venezuela's president Maduro after his kidnapping in a US operation on January 3. However, if Trump anticipated Iran would mirror Venezuela's scenario, he was profoundly mistaken. Instead of a moderate figurehead, Iran's Assembly of Experts, comprising 88 senior clerics, elected Khamenei junior, a notoriously hardline figure viewed as even more extreme than his father, poised to unite and reinvigorate extremist sentiment across Iran and potentially the wider Middle East.
This defiant crowning strongly suggests that the mullahs and fiercely loyal Revolutionary Guard will resist to a bloody end, halting only if Trump concedes first. Could yesterday have marked that moment? In a CBS News interview, Trump stated, 'I think the war is very complete, pretty much. They have no navy, no communications, they've got no air force. Their missiles are down to a scatter. Their drones are being blown up all over the place.' Yet, typical Trump bluster aside, if he believes the war is nearly over, he has fallen far short of his original aim: regime change.
The Resilience of Hardline Control
Khamenei's appointment underscores that, despite numerous targeted assassinations of top commanders and clerics, a central group of hardliners continues to dictate policy amidst the bombing. Khamenei junior now serves as the figurehead, but Israeli sources note he lacks the military experience or clerical clout as a mid-ranker in the religious hierarchy to secure the top job independently. His birthright undoubtedly aided his ascent, despite the Islamic Republic's insistence against hereditary succession for the Supreme Leader.
It is evident that hardliners are firmly in control, confident they can withstand the onslaught of American bombs. Iran's tyranny differs from a single dictator like Saddam Hussein in neighbouring Iraq; it operates through a pyramid of power that embeds regime influence in every aspect of life, enabling dogged persistence even after many senior figures have been eliminated.
Personal Vengeance and Strategic Chaos
For Mojtaba Khamenei, this conflict is deeply personal. Not only was his father, the Ayatollah, killed by American strikes, but reports from Iran indicate his mother, wife, daughter, sister, nephew, niece, and brother-in-law have also perished. The Revolutionary Guard's strategy is clear: cause economic chaos by choking global oil and gas supplies and destabilising oil states. They believe this will undermine Gulf states' alliances with America, erode Western support for the war, and eventually force Trump to end the conflict.
Yet, will this tactic succeed? The scale of the attack on Iran has been extraordinary. In the war's first six days, Trump claimed to have dropped over 2,000 bombs on approximately 3,000 targets, with Israel adding hundreds more. The IDF has launched at least 20 operations inside Iran, systematically dismantling military infrastructure, including air defence systems, missile launchers, command centres, and naval facilities. Trump initially sought 'total surrender' from the Iranian regime, akin to his Russian counterpart in Ukraine, expecting a swift victory. However, he is quickly learning that regimes cannot be easily toppled from the sky, much like Hitler's henchmen retained control until Allied forces marched in.
Regime Imperviousness and Regional Escalation
The mullahs' regime, deeply embedded in Iranian life, appears almost impervious to the surrounding carnage, rapidly replacing fallen generals and politicians through decentralised authorities. While millions of citizens may despise the Republic, it is the hardliners who wield guns. Aerial bombardment cannot alter this reality or halt the brutal Basij religious police, who use motorbikes and private cars to suppress even the faintest dissent.
Far from being cowed, the regime continues to expand conflict regionally. Just yesterday, NATO forces shot down an Iranian missile over Turkish airspace, likely targeting Cyprus or the Ceyhan oil pipeline terminus in southern Turkey, which transfers Azeri oil to Israel, accounting for about 70% of its oil imports. The US has since closed its consulate in southern Turkey. Iran has already launched thousands of missiles and drones at targets in countries like Jordan, the UAE, and Kuwait, prompting these nations to reassess their foreign policies for greater vigilance against Iranian threats post-war.
Turkey, however, presents a different challenge. As a NATO member, an attack could trigger Article 5, drawing the UK and other European allies into the war. Moreover, Iran's cost-effective drone warfare makes a war of attrition unfavourable for America and NATO, a fact Iran exploits. Simultaneously, Iran controls the Strait of Hormuz, through which around 20% of global oil passes. Despite Trump's promise of military escorts for tankers, crude prices have surpassed $100 a barrel for the first time since 2022. Trump dismisses these 'short-term' increases as a 'very small price to pay' for world peace, but average American citizens at the gas pump may feel differently come the mid-term elections this November.
Trump's Limited Options and Potential Truce
With aerial bombardment proving insufficient to bend the Iranian regime, what options remain for Donald Trump? The American people will not tolerate boots on the ground in the Middle East, a region still scarred by the 20-year Afghanistan campaign that claimed 2,459 US lives and saw the Taliban retake Kabul. Last week, seven coffins draped in the star-spangled banner returned to the US from the Middle East; Trump cannot afford more casualties before public opinion sours irreparably.
It is likely that, sooner rather than later, Trump will bombastically declare victory while making an uneasy truce with his new Iranian counterpart. He has repeated Saddam Hussein's mistake from September 1980, assuming the infant Islamic regime was on its last legs and internally divided. Saddam aimed to seize Iran's oil-rich southwest but faced fierce resistance as the Ayatollah mobilised religious sentiment among young men, including Mojtaba Khamenei, who now rules the country.
The Enduring Regime and Regional Fallout
Any peace deal with Iran would mean the authoritarian regime endures, a political humiliation for Trump, who vowed to topple the mullahs. Conversely, Iran's military will be severely depleted: nuclear ambitions thwarted for a generation, military infrastructure requiring years or decades to recover, and proxies like Hamas, Hezbollah, and the Houthis in Yemen weakened by repeated Israeli attacks, reducing the regime's capacity to spread terror globally.
Yet, the great tragedy persists: despite a popular uprising and the regime's slaughter of over 30,000 protesters last month, little will change for the Iranian people, oppressed since the 1979 Revolution. Khamenei junior will likely intensify crackdowns on dissent, ensuring bloodshed and brutality continue in Revolutionary Guard torture chambers. Trump may declare his war a triumph and move on, but Iran's hardline grip remains unshaken.
