A leaked United States embassy cable has revealed that Israeli officials harboured significant doubts about the ability of the Lebanese state to disarm Hezbollah, just before Israel launched a series of airstrikes on Beirut's southern suburbs on Monday. The internal assessment, dated 27 February, was sent to Washington a day prior to joint US-Israeli aerial attacks on Iran, which resulted in the death of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and triggered retaliatory strikes across the region.
Israeli Concerns Over Hezbollah's Rearmament
The cable, obtained by the Guardian, details that Israeli officials informed Washington that Hezbollah was reconstituting its military capabilities at a faster rate than the Lebanese armed forces could degrade them. It explicitly stated that neither Beirut nor Damascus could be trusted to contain the threat posed to Israel's northern borders. This scepticism was underscored by Israel's subsequent military actions, with the first wave of airstrikes targeting Hezbollah-dominated areas in southern Beirut three days after the cable was dispatched.
Doubts About Syrian and Turkish Roles
According to the leaked document, Israeli officials expressed grave concerns regarding Syria's new leadership, questioning President Ahmed al-Sharaa's ability and willingness to control his own security forces. Additionally, the cable highlighted alarm over Turkish military entrenchment in Syria, warning that it could create a strategic threat to Israel. It noted that Turkish officials had repeatedly incited against Israel in Syria, even while maintaining de-confliction agreements with Israeli national security officials, suggesting Ankara was pursuing a dual-track strategy that positioned itself militarily at Israel's expense.
US Ambassador's Controversial Remarks
The cable was prepared under the auspices of US Ambassador to Israel Mike Huckabee, who had previously sparked a diplomatic scandal by telling journalist Tucker Carlson that it would be acceptable for Israel to seize territory from the Nile to the Euphrates, encompassing Lebanon, Syria, Jordan, and parts of Iraq and Saudi Arabia. These remarks led to condemnation from 14 governments, prompting the embassy to clarify that US policy remained unchanged. Huckabee also commented that if Israel were attacked and won such a war, taking land would be a separate discussion.
Ceasefire Strains and Ongoing Tensions
The leaked assessment indicated that Iranian funding continued to reach Hezbollah through Turkey and other channels, despite a ceasefire brokered in November 2024. This forced the Israel Defense Forces to resume military attacks on the group. In January, the Lebanese army announced it had taken over security in southern Lebanon, a move met with scepticism by Israel. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's office described efforts to disarm Hezbollah as an encouraging beginning but insufficient, citing the group's rearmament efforts with Iranian support.
Cross-border exchanges had already strained the ceasefire before the Iran strikes began, with Israeli forces maintaining five military outposts north of a UN-demarcated blue line inside Lebanese territory. Within 72 hours of the US and Israeli strikes on Iran, Hezbollah fired rockets into northern Israel for the first time since the 2024 ceasefire, Israel bombed Beirut, and Lebanon's Prime Minister Nawaf Salam convened an emergency cabinet meeting demanding Hezbollah disarm. Hezbollah leader Naim Qassem had previously indicated in January that any attack on Tehran would be considered an attack on Hezbollah, showing little willingness to heed disarmament calls.
