Iran's supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, is confronting the most significant threat to his rule in more than three decades, as mass protests demanding regime change sweep the nation. The unrest has prompted suggestions from US President Donald Trump that the ageing cleric could be preparing to flee the country, possibly to Russia, with Trump stating Iran was on the 'verge of collapsing'.
The Making of a Supreme Leader
When Ayatollah Ali Khamenei assumed power in 1989, succeeding the revolutionary icon Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini, he faced profound scepticism. A mid-ranking cleric without his predecessor's religious stature or charismatic fire, Khamenei has nonetheless ruled three times longer, profoundly shaping the Islamic Republic. He solidified the political dominance of Shiite Muslim clerics, positioning himself as the nation's unquestionable authority.
Critically, Khamenei built the paramilitary Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) into the paramount force within Iran's military, politics, and economy. The IRGC controls Iran's ballistic missile programme and its external arm, the Quds Force, which constructed the 'Axis of Resistance'. This network of proxies, from Hezbollah in Lebanon to the Houthis in Yemen, extended Tehran's influence across the Middle East for years.
Decades of Crushing Dissent
Khamenei's grip has been repeatedly tested. The first major challenge came from a domestic reform movement advocating for elected officials. Khamenei rallied the clerical establishment to stymie reforms, while the IRGC and security forces crushed subsequent protest waves.
These included the massive 2009 demonstrations over alleged election fraud, economic protests in 2017 and 2019 under sanctions pressure, and the 2022 nationwide uprising triggered by the death of Mahsa Amini. Crackdowns were brutal, with hundreds killed and reports of torture and rape in prisons. Each wave exposed deepening public resentment over clerical rule, corruption, and economic hardship.
A Regional Power Unravels
Khamenei's tenure transformed Iran from a war-battered nation after the conflict with Iraq into a assertive regional power. The 2003 US ousting of Saddam Hussein was a major boost, bringing Iranian-allied factions to power in Iraq. By 2015, the Axis of Resistance was at its peak.
However, the past two years have brought a dramatic reversal. Hamas's October 2023 attack on Israel triggered a devastating war in Gaza and a shift in Israeli policy towards actively dismantling Iran's allies. Hezbollah has been sidelined, and a critical blow landed in December 2024 when Syria's Bashar al-Assad, a key ally, was removed from power by Sunni rebels. Furthermore, in June 2025, the US bombed three Iranian nuclear facilities in support of an Israeli campaign.
Now, as chants of 'death to Khamenei' echo in Iranian streets, inspired in part by the son of the deposed Shah, the regime is reportedly in 'survival mode'. With the Axis of Resistance at its lowest ebb and internal dissent at a historic high, the supreme leader's 35-year project faces its ultimate trial.
