Just as fighting was set to resume on Tuesday, President Donald Trump announced the extension of a 14-day ceasefire at the eleventh hour, saying Iran's 'seriously fractured' leadership was an obstacle to a peace agreement. Mr Trump said the military would continue a blockade on Iranian ports until Tehran's 'leaders and representatives can come up with a unified proposal', following a request from Pakistan. But after America and Israel have killed several of the Islamic Republic's senior leadership figures and the new supreme leader Mojtaba Khamenei has yet to be seen in public, it is unclear who is actually in charge in Iran.
The political vacuum left in the wake of the assassinations has been filled by ardent nationalists within the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), according to experts. This tight-knit circle are staunchly anti-America and are reportedly passing messages by word of mouth to avoid detection by electronic means and ensure new leadership figures are not assassinated, according to analysts. US-Israeli strikes on Iran have also increased sympathy for their cause, fomenting nationalism among the regime's younger supporters. The situation has created a hostile climate for more liberal and moderate elements within the discussions, who have been sidelined as a result, say experts.
Who are the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps?
The IRGC was set up in the immediate aftermath of the Iranian Revolution in 1979, during which the shah, Mohammad Reza Pahlavi, was deposed. Since then, the group has gone on to become a formidable military force within Iran. It is reported to have around 124,000 members, comprising ground, navy and air forces. The commander of the IRGC, Ahmad Vahidi, assumed office after his predecessor, Mohammad Pakpour, was killed in a US-Israeli attack at the outset of the war on 1 March. Mr Vahidi is considered to be deeply embedded within the Iranian establishment and served as defence minister under former president Mahmoud Ahmadinejad between 2009 and 2013. He is a trusted figure who is reported to be in touch with the supreme leader on a regular basis and conveys his wishes to the rest of the command, according to reports. Since 2022, the IRGC has been linked to at least 20 credible plots against the UK.
Rifts emerge in Iran
While much of the focus has been on President Trump's flip-flopping between different positions on Iran, analysts say that Tehran's own position in negotiations is also fluid. After foreign minister and career diplomat Abbas Araghchi announced the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz last week, the IRGC made the unusual move to criticise the announcement with the affiliated Tasnim news agency describing the statement as 'a complete lack of tact in information dissemination.' The Institute for the Study of War said the disagreement was 'reflective of broader divisions within the Iranian regime' in an update on 17 April.
Earlier this week, the ISW reported that the secretary of Iran's supreme national security council, Mohammad Bagher Zolghadr, had complained to senior IRGC leaders 'including Vahidi' that foreign minister Araghchi had 'surpassed his mandate' in negotiations. The IRGC has insisted that the strait remain shut due to the US blockade. Mr Araghchi is said to have caused concern by suggesting Tehran's support for Hezbollah and the Axis of Resistance was flexible, according to the New York Post. The politician has a long history of negotiating and was integral to securing the 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), a nuclear agreement that saw Iran regularly supervised by the International Atomic Energy Agency. 'Zolghadr's anger caused senior leaders in Tehran, including former IRGC Intelligence Organisation chief and long-time member of Mojtaba's inner circle, Hossein Taeb, to call the negotiating delegation back to Tehran,' the ISW said.
'Risk-averse' Khamenei replaced by IRGC nationalists
Ayatollah Ali Khamenei's killing on 28 February has led to a less tolerant approach to the West, according to Dr Andreas Böhm, a lecturer in international law and international affairs at the University of St Gallen in Switzerland. In previous conflicts, Dr Böhm says that Iran would tend to react 'symbolically' by sending missiles to Israel and US bases hosted by Gulf countries or firing rockets at Israel in a show of strength. 'This new leadership is rather more straightforward,' he tells The Independent. 'They say, for any escalation of the Americans, we will escalate further. They're more committed to seeing this through than under Khamenei, who would have dealt with this differently. He was rather risk-averse and was against going all-out. That hurt him strategically. We've had a regime transformation and that has led to a more hardline position.'
The theocratic component within the country has weakened while the national security element has been emboldened, says Vuk Vuksanović, an associate at foreign policy think tank LSE Ideas and a lecturer in foreign policy at King's College London. 'Years before the ongoing wars, there were talks that the theocratic component of the regime, as personified in the figure of the supreme leader, is going to grow weaker while the national security element, as embodied in the IRGC, is going to gain strength,' he tells The Independent. 'Today, that is exactly what is happening.' Due to their role in the war, he says the IRGC has gone from being 'a power centre within the Iranian state to being even more firmly embedded with the Iranian state itself on all levels.' 'Consequently, the regime organised around the national security apparatus will be much harder-line, much more nationalist, and much less willing to compromise.' He adds: 'The IRGC is going to emerge as the primary power centre of the Iranian political system as a result of this war. In times of breakdown, especially war, it is the micromanagers and those best at organised violence who come to the top.'
But experts also suggest that distrust of the US is driving this less tolerant approach. Prof Ashok Kumar, associate lecturer in political economy at Birkbeck University, says that American U-turns on agreements, including political assassinations such as those of Qasem Soleimani in 2020, economic sanctions and the recent debacle over the inclusion of Lebanon in a ceasefire agreement, undermine future diplomatic efforts. 'The more this pattern persists, the more it resolves Iran's internal debates in favour of those who argue that negotiation is not strategy but self-deception.'
Who is running Iran right now?
Experts believe that Mojtaba Khamenei is still issuing orders about the direction of Iran's policy with the US and Israel, despite claims by US secretary of war Pete Hegseth that the son of Ali Khamenei has been 'disfigured'. Dr Böhm says his absence from public life will not be unusual for the Iranian public and may even add to the perception of his strength. Shia mythology valorises the spiritual figure of the Twelfth Imam, who they believe operates from beyond the shadows. Furthermore, the Iranian establishment will be cautious about elevating a figure too much after the assassination of other senior figures, including the head of Iran's security council, Ali Larijani. In his absence, several public figures have emerged, but the true decision-making structure is largely invisible.
Mohammed Bagher Ghalibaf is largely a public figurehead and pragmatist, but he owes power to his proximity to the IRGC, which he joined as a teenager. He was reportedly considered a 'hot option' to lead Iran in reports by Politico last month. Driven by the pressures of war, Iran has also reportedly granted its military commanders greater autonomy over militias in Iraq, allowing some groups to carry out operations without Tehran's approval, three militia members and two other officials told the Associated Press. 'Many of the moderates and pragmatists who could have cut a deal with the US, including Ali Larijani, have been killed in air strikes, primarily the Israeli air strikes,' said Dr Vuksanović. 'The IRGC, as the main locus of hardliners, can rein in any remaining pragmatists and moderates by pointing out that previous attempts to negotiate with the US failed and that the US cannot be trusted.'
