The Rt Rev Dr Guli Francis-Dehqani, the Bishop of Chelmsford who fled Iran as a refugee following the 1979 revolution, has declared the current Iranian regime is "in its death throes." However, she has issued a stark warning that its desperate fight for survival should not be underestimated, raising grave concerns about the potential for a devastating civil war.
A Personal History of Persecution
Bishop Francis-Dehqani, 59, was born in Iran in 1966. Her father was Hassan Dehqani-Tafti, the Anglican Bishop in Iran. Following the Islamic Revolution, her family faced severe persecution. Their home was raided, her father was detained, and there was an assassination attempt on her father's life in which her mother, Margaret, was injured.
While her father was abroad on church duties, her brother Bahram was killed. After his funeral, Guli, her mother, and sister Shirin reunited with her father overseas, eventually settling in the UK as refugees when she was 14 years old. She now holds a seat in the House of Lords.
Regime Survival and Brutal Crackdowns
In an interview with the Press Association, the bishop elaborated on her assessment of the regime's fragility. "I think that this regime is in its death throes, I genuinely do," she stated. "But death throes can last for a very, very long time. I don't have any clear sense of when it will end, but I believe it will end, and so I think they feel a sort of existential threat."
She argued the regime lacks a coherent plan for economic or political recovery. "I think everything they're doing is about surviving another day, hence the brutality of the crackdown we saw at the end of last year into the beginning of this. I mean, it was utterly, utterly barbaric. I think everything they're doing is about trying to survive another day and that shouldn't be underestimated."
She noted that Iran "constantly seems to surprise the West" with its resilience and preparedness, suggesting they likely anticipated recent US-Israeli military strikes.
UK Policy and International Law
When questioned about the UK Government's decision not to participate in the initial US-Israeli strikes on Iran, Bishop Francis-Dehqani expressed her agreement. "I personally happen to agree that Britain should not have joined in the attack. I think he (Sir Keir Starmer) was right to say this does not seem to have legal status under international law."
She acknowledged the weakened state of international law but affirmed, "I think it's right that we stood by that and refused to join the attack."
Fears of Civil War and Power Vacuum
The bishop's gravest warning centred on the potential for catastrophic internal conflict following any regime collapse. "There is no credible opposition around which people will coalesce," she explained. "If the regime does kind of collapse in some form of chaos, I really worry that there will be civil war."
She expressed deep concern about the factions vying for power. "There are factions who are seeking change, wanting change. Some of them are no better, if not worse, than what we have at the minute. And I really fear civil war and massive bloodshed."
She emphasised that sustainable change must come from within Iran, criticising historical Western intervention. "The West has intervened so often in the politics of Iran, the people almost have lost the ability to work out their future for themselves. So, I think the West, yes, give support to dissident groups, help the Iranian people, but they have to have agency in working out what comes next."
She added that democracy is a "far-off dream" for Iran, as it "has to be learned" and the nation has never experienced it.
Current Communications Blackout and Terror Exploitation
Bishop Francis-Dehqani revealed she is currently cut off from contacts within Iran. "I'm not getting anything out of Iran at the minute, my messages aren't getting through and nothing's coming out," she said, noting it is a "very, very difficult time" for those with family ties.
She recounted a disturbing message received during the January protests, warning that terrorist dissident groups were exploiting the unrest. "They are killing government agents and, he said, beheading them, literally on the streets. And then the government isn't discerning between the terrorist groups and innocent protesters, so I fear we would have more of that kind of thing."
While there were initial reports of jubilation after recent events, she fears the mood will shift. "The reality kicks in that this is not going to be over quickly," she said, predicting the euphoria "will turn to real fear."
Contemplating the uncertain future, Bishop Francis-Dehqani confessed, "I really weep for what could be coming in the coming days and weeks," capturing the profound anxiety for her homeland as its regime fights a protracted and brutal battle for survival.
