Fresh waves of anti-government protests have erupted in Tehran, with demonstrators gathering and vehicles set ablaze, marking a significant escalation in the ongoing unrest challenging Iran's leadership. The regime's response, including a widespread internet blackout, aims to stifle dissent and obscure the severity of its crackdown from international observers.
Economic Despair Ignites Widespread Dissent
The current wave of demonstrations, which began in late December, was initially sparked by rocketing inflation and a collapsing national currency. However, the protests have rapidly broadened in both scope and ambition. Videos circulating online, despite state efforts to block them, show thousands marching through the capital on Thursday night, with some participants setting fire to police vehicles and state-owned buildings.
This unrest is notable for its roots in segments of society that have historically shown more support for the Islamic Republic. Unlike the massive 'Woman, Life, Freedom' movement of 2022, the current protests are smaller but have escalated quickly, with some voices explicitly calling for the regime's downfall. Non-governmental organisations report that dozens of people, including children, have been killed in the authorities' harsh response.
A Regime Under Mounting Pressure
Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, 86, initially acknowledged the legitimacy of some economic grievances. His tone has since hardened dramatically. He now labels protesters as "saboteurs" allegedly seeking to please former US President Donald Trump, who threatened to "hit hard" if more demonstrators died. Mirroring this rhetoric, the head of Iran's judiciary promised consequences for demonstrators would be "decisive, maximum and without any legal leniency".
The regime confronts a perfect storm of crises. Its economic policy options are severely constrained. The belief that it could at least provide physical security for citizens was shattered by June's 12-day war with Israel and US attacks on nuclear facilities. Furthermore, Khamenei's advanced age and poor health fuel uncertainty about the country's future leadership.
External Threats and Regional Instability
The situation is dangerously compounded by external actors. Donald Trump's threats of intervention, following what he perceived as a successful strategy in Venezuela, risk allowing the Iranian leadership to delegitimise its own citizens by painting them as pawns of foreign powers. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has also talked up the protests, seeing an Iran embroiled in domestic chaos as advantageous.
Iran's defence council has signalled it could take preemptive military action against perceived threats from the US and Israel, raising the spectre of a broader regional conflict. While the regime has historically crushed protests, it has consistently failed to address their root causes. Whether it persists or nears its end, there is no easy exit. Those exploiting legitimate Iranian grievances for geopolitical gain risk only increasing the bloodshed and suffering of civilians.
