China's Military Flights Near Taiwan Plummet, Analysts Puzzled
China has dramatically reduced its warplane flights near Taiwan over the past two weeks, a surprising shift that has left defence analysts and officials uncertain about Beijing's strategic intentions. For years, regular Chinese military sorties toward the self-governing island—which China claims as its territory—have raised alarms from Taipei to Washington. Now, this sharp decline has created a void of understanding that experts warn could increase regional risks.
Uncertainty and Risk in the Taiwan Strait
Former U.S. defence official Drew Thompson highlighted the dangers of this ambiguity. "There are so many theories and the lack of understanding of China’s intentions is what’s disconcerting," said Thompson, now a senior fellow at the S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies in Singapore. "You fill the void with uncertainty, and uncertainty increases risk." This sentiment echoes concerns among policymakers monitoring the delicate cross-strait balance.
Flight Data Reveals Dramatic Drop
The falloff in flights has been particularly stark in recent days. Taiwan's Defence Ministry issues daily reports on Chinese air force and naval activity around the island. For seven consecutive days from February 27 to March 5, Taiwan reported no Chinese military planes in its Air Defence Identification Zone. After two were detected on March 6, the next four days saw none again.
Flights have resumed in minimal numbers over the last two days, with three on Wednesday and two on Thursday. This brings the total for the past two weeks to just seven flights. In contrast, during the same period last year, there were 92 Chinese military flights recorded—a staggering difference that underscores the scale of this reduction.
Political and Diplomatic Explanations
Analysts have proposed several theories for the decline. The drop coincided with the annual meeting of China's legislature, and such flights have historically decreased during major events and public holidays. However, this year's reduction was far more pronounced than in previous instances.
"That alone would not be the only or primary reason for sorties dropping to zero," said K. Tristan Tang, a Taipei-based nonresident fellow at the National Bureau of Asian Research, in an email response. Another factor could be Beijing's desire to calm tensions with Washington ahead of a scheduled visit by U.S. President Donald Trump from March 31 to April 2.
Thompson noted, however, that Taiwan may not be Trump's primary focus. "Trump sees China as an economic negotiation, not as a security challenge," he said. The United States maintains its opposition to any attempt to change Taiwan's status by force, such as a potential Chinese invasion, while China insists the democratic island must eventually come under its control.
Military Training and Modernisation Shifts
Tang suggested the decline might reflect a shift in China's military training and modernisation efforts. The People's Liberation Army could be exploring new models for joint training between its air force, navy, and possibly ground forces. Such exploratory activities would likely be conducted away from Taiwan to prevent foreign monitoring, which could explain the reduced presence of Chinese planes in the area.
Taiwan Maintains Vigilance Despite Lull
Taiwan's military has signalled that it is not lowering its guard despite the decrease in Chinese warplane activity. Defence Minister Wellington Koo emphasised that China's navy remains active in nearby waters, even as flights have diminished.
"As I have said before, we cannot rely solely on a single symptom like the absence of PLA aircraft to make a judgment," Koo told journalists, using the acronym for the People's Liberation Army. "We will continue to closely monitor the PLA’s movements." This cautious approach reflects Taiwan's ongoing defence posture amid the unpredictable cross-strait dynamics.
