China Scrutinises US Political Landscape Following Postponed Summit
The White House confirmed on Wednesday that China has agreed to delay Donald Trump's scheduled visit to Beijing, as the ongoing war in the Middle East complicates the US president's domestic and international standing. Beijing has yet to comment on this postponement of the highly anticipated meeting between Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping, which would mark their first in-person encounter since October.
Trump had previously expressed a desire to reschedule the trip, originally set for 31 March to 2 April, by "five or six weeks." This delay underscores how the conflict with Iran is reshaping geopolitics far beyond its regional borders. China is closely observing the potential repercussions on US-China relations and the upcoming US midterm elections in November.
Geopolitical Calculations and Electoral Dynamics
A US president focused on electoral success at home might become a more flexible negotiator internationally. However, Trump's notorious unpredictability adds a layer of complexity to China's strategic assessments. The rescheduled meeting, now likely in May, was expected to address the next phase of the US-China trade war, which has been under a temporary truce since October. The war with Iran, a nation with friendly ties to China, is anticipated to feature prominently on the agenda.
The last-minute delay may provide some relief to Beijing, which never formally confirmed the original meeting dates. Recent reports indicated Chinese officials were frustrated by inadequate US planning for an event Beijing expects to be meticulously orchestrated. This situation could increase pressure on Trump to secure a deal during his eventual visit, especially as the Iran conflict drives oil prices upward.
Public Opinion and Economic Leverage
A recent NBC News poll revealed that over half of registered US voters disapprove of the strikes on Iran, including more than one-third of non-Maga Republicans. Neil Thomas, a fellow at the Asia Society Policy Institute, noted, "Beijing can reasonably assume that Trump wants to avoid a fresh inflation spike heading into the midterms, which gives China some leverage in trade talks." He added, "that leverage has limits ... Trump's war with Iran shows that he is willing to accept economic costs when he believes other strategic or political priorities matter more."
Both nations share an interest in preventing last year's trade war from escalating in 2026. China's economy, heavily reliant on exports, saw a 22% growth in exports during January and February, with no signs of slowing. While the US experienced limited economic fallout last year, economists predict negative effects such as inflation and rising unemployment in the coming months, particularly if no deal is reached to avoid high reciprocal tariffs. Combined with energy price inflation from the Iran war, Trump could face a disgruntled electorate in the November midterms.
Strategic Pressure and Historical Precedents
Amanda Hsiao, China director at Eurasia Group, stated, "There is a view [in Beijing] that ahead of the midterms Trump may be more motivated to secure economic deals with China as this will help boost his message of economic affordability to voters." Beijing knows how to apply pressure effectively. After Trump initiated the trade war in April last year, Chinese purchases of US soybeans—a key export from Trump-supporting regions—ceased, only resuming after the October truce.
This is a rehearsed tactic. During the 2018 midterms, held amid a US-China trade war, areas affected by Chinese retaliatory measures saw reduced vote shares for the Republican party, which lost control of the House of Representatives that year. One study estimated that China's retaliation cost the Republicans four seats. With a narrow majority of just four seats in 2026, a similar outcome could be detrimental for Trump.
Post-Midterm Scenarios and Conflicting Pressures
However, a weakened Trump might not benefit Beijing. Hsiao explained, "There are also questions among Chinese observers as to what happens after the midterms and whether a weakened Trump will harden his posture toward China." A defeat could energise Republican China hawks, who have been marginalised as Trump softened the US stance on China. Despite tariff threats, Trump's administration has approved exports of advanced semiconductors to China and delayed weapon sales to Taiwan—key priorities for Beijing.
Yun Sun, director of the China programme at the Stimson Center thinktank, said, "Overall, China has seen the second Trump term as a positive development for US-China relations. The weakening of Trump's power could see the hawkish view on China on the rise again. If anything, the Chinese will want to see Trump stay in power, and that means potentially more support of his domestic trade agenda, not less."
Conflicting pressures mean Beijing's perspective on the midterms is nuanced. Regardless of whether a Republican defeat is advantageous for China, many Chinese experts anticipate this outcome. Wang Wen, dean of the Chongyang Institute for Financial Studies at Renmin University of China, described Trump's record in office as "truly dismal."
