Bellingcat Video Analysis Challenges Trump's Claim on Iranian School Strike
An investigation by the open-source intelligence group Bellingcat has released new video evidence that appears to contradict former U.S. President Donald Trump's assertion that Iran was responsible for a devastating explosion at an Iranian school, which resulted in the deaths of over 165 individuals, predominantly children. The incident occurred on February 28, 2026, in Minab, located in Iran's southern Hormozgan Province, amid the ongoing conflict in the Middle East.
Geolocation and Munition Identification Point to US Involvement
The video, a three-second clip circulated by Iran's semiofficial Mehr news agency and analyzed by Bellingcat, shows a munition striking a building, producing a dark plume of smoke. Trevor Ball, a researcher at Bellingcat, successfully geolocated the footage to a site near the school, a finding corroborated by The Associated Press. Ball identified the weapon as a Tomahawk cruise missile, a munition exclusively possessed by the United States in this conflict, marking the first tangible evidence linking a specific armament to the attack.
Complicating the assessment is the absence of bomb fragments from the blast site, as no independent agencies have been able to access the area during the war. When questioned about U.S. responsibility, Trump responded without providing evidence, stating, "No, in my opinion, based on what I’ve seen, that was done by Iran," and added that Iran is "very inaccurate" with their munitions. In contrast, Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth indicated that the U.S. military is investigating the incident.
Mounting Evidence and Military Protocols Suggest US Culpability
Several factors increasingly point to U.S. involvement in the strike. Firstly, the U.S. military has initiated an assessment of the incident, a step typically taken under Pentagon protocols when initial investigations suggest potential U.S. culpability for civilian harm. A U.S. official, speaking anonymously due to the sensitivity of the matter, informed the AP that the strike was likely conducted by U.S. forces.
Secondly, the school's proximity to a Revolutionary Guard base and naval barracks aligns with U.S. military targeting patterns in the region, which have focused on naval assets. The U.S. has acknowledged strikes in Hormozgan Province, including near the school's location. Meanwhile, Israel, which has denied involvement, has concentrated its operations closer to its borders, over 800 kilometers away, and has not reported any strikes in the southern region where the school is situated.
The U.S. operates warships, such as the USS Abraham Lincoln aircraft carrier, in the Arabian Sea, within range of the school. Neither U.S. Central Command nor the Israeli military provided immediate comments on Bellingcat's analysis when contacted by the AP. This investigation underscores the complexities of attributing responsibility in conflict zones and raises serious questions about civilian casualties in the ongoing Middle East war.
