After seven years of conflict, Bashar al-Assad has nearly secured victory in Syria, with only Idlib province remaining outside his control. However, as Russian and Iranian allies scale back their involvement, the Syrian army is left too weakened to finish the campaign alone. A ceasefire in Idlib is portrayed as a measure to protect civilians, but Assad's depleted forces face a daunting battle without the airpower and ground militias that previously supported them.
Casualties, desertions, and draft dodging have severely impacted the army's strength. In a sign of desperation, the regime changed university exam rules this summer without notice, aiming to conscript male students. A female student in Damascus reported that 70% of her 300-strong year group failed exams, many deliberately, to delay service. However, the usual amnesty for resits was scrapped, leaving male students at risk of being drafted.
One 23-year-old, Elie, fled to Beirut after failing his second year and being called up. He could avoid service by paying an $8,000 fine, but his family cannot afford it. 'It's not much easier here, but it's better than wasting years of my life drenched in blood and killing,' he said. His cousin has served five years, been wounded three times, and lost over 50 friends.
Even with new conscripts, Assad's army is unlikely to retake Idlib swiftly without Tehran and Moscow. Only 20,000–25,000 soldiers are estimated for the offensive, facing at least 70,000 rebels. A European diplomat noted, 'Idlib would be a tough fight for the regime. They are likely to incur heavy losses.' Iran and Hezbollah are not committed to the ground fight, and Russia faces domestic pressure to withdraw.
The regime's weakness has boosted rebel confidence. 'Idlib is the last place the revolution still lives,' said Mahmoud Abbi of the Free Idlib police. 'We are prepared to fight if the ceasefire deal breaks down.' A regime offensive would likely avoid the scorched earth tactics seen elsewhere, but even an attrition campaign requires bolstering army morale. In a surprise move, the government offered amnesty to deserters and draft dodgers who return within six months, hoping to entice those with funds to pay fines.
