As the UK debates further devolution, Wales provides critical lessons after more than 25 years of its own parliament. Will Hayward, a journalist specialising in Welsh politics, warns that devolution must be done correctly to avoid failure. He draws from Wales' experience to guide figures like Andy Burnham, who has made devolution central to his prime ministerial pitch.
Fiscal centralisation: a unique UK problem
The UK is the most fiscally centralised country in the G7, with over 90% of tax revenue collected and controlled by Westminster. In contrast, about half of US government spending is by individual states. The prime minister also serves as England's first minister, akin to the governor of Texas also being US president. This concentration of power is unusual internationally.
Lesson one: devolve tools, not just responsibilities
Wales has responsibility for economic development but lacks key levers. It has very limited borrowing capacity—less than a council—and its borrowing limit was frozen from 2016 to 2026, unlike Scotland's which rose with inflation. Wales receives only about 2% of UK research and development funding despite 5% of the population. Key infrastructure like rail remains reserved, costing Wales billions. A former Welsh minister admitted, “We don’t really know what we’re doing on the economy.” Hayward likens this to giving someone an electric car without a charger.
Lesson two: accept the cost of governance
Devolution adds bureaucracy, but the current central system is expensive. The Palace of Westminster renovation could cost up to £40bn, with a single door costing £9.6m. That sum would cover the annual running cost of an expanded Welsh Senedd for 390 years. Critics who decry devolution's cost ignore the inefficiency of centralisation.
Lesson three: respect national differences
In Wales and Scotland, devolution is an expression of nationhood, not just administration. A cookie-cutter approach fails. Burnham's early proposals were criticised for treating Wales, Scotland, and London the same, substituting place names without understanding context. He mistakenly made commitments in areas like housing and water where the UK government has no power. Welsh Labour sources called it a “gift to Plaid Cymru.”
Lesson four: safeguard devolution from abolition
Wales' Senedd can be abolished by a simple majority vote in Westminster, even if every Welsh MP and Senedd member opposes it. Devolution must be protected so it survives the administration that created it. Hayward argues that giving people a voice means not removing it without their approval.
Opportunity and risk
Further devolution is a vital opportunity to fix a broken system, but doing it well is as important as doing it at all. Learning from Wales' successes and failures can prevent squandering a rare moment of political openness to change. Hayward urges that devolution must be designed to work, not set up to fail.
