Ukraine's foreign intelligence service has issued a stark warning that Russia is preparing to orchestrate a major atrocity involving significant loss of life, which it will then falsely attribute to Ukrainian forces.
Timing and Tactics of the Alleged Provocation
The agency, headed by Lieutenant General Oleh Ivashchenko, stated that the feared act of violence is likely to be timed around Orthodox Christmas celebrations. The dates of 6 and 7 January, marking Christmas Eve and Christmas Day on the Julian calendar, are highlighted as a potential window for the attack.
The Foreign Intelligence Service of Ukraine (FISU) alleges the provocation could target a place of worship or another location of high symbolic value, either within Russia itself or in the temporarily occupied territories of Ukraine. To fabricate evidence implicating Kyiv, the plan reportedly involves using fragments of Western-made strike drones, which would be transported to the scene from the front lines.
Aims to Derail US Peace Initiative
According to the intelligence assessment, the primary objective of this alleged 'false flag' operation is twofold. Firstly, it aims to disrupt the peace drive recently spearheaded by US President Donald Trump. Secondly, it is intended to provide a pretext for Russia to continue its war efforts.
The FISU statement directly links this warning to recent events, citing Moscow's claims of a Ukrainian drone attack on a residence used by President Vladimir Putin in the Novgorod region. Kyiv has denied those allegations, with President Volodymyr Zelensky dismissing them as 'lies'. The Ukrainian intelligence service asserts that the Kremlin is conducting a 'comprehensive' special operation designed to derail the US-mediated peace talks.
Historical Precedent and International Warnings
Ukraine's spies claim that such tactics are a hallmark of Russian security services. "Exploiting fear and carrying out terrorist acts with casualties 'under a false flag' fully corresponds to the working style of Russia's security services," the FISU warned. They argue that Putin's regime has used this model domestically and is now exporting it abroad.
This alert comes amid a heightened travel advisory from the United States. The US State Department has renewed its 'do not travel' warning for Russia, citing risks of terrorism, wrongful detention, and the arbitrary enforcement of local laws. The advisory explicitly urges any American citizens in Russia to 'leave immediately'.
The backdrop to these tense allegations is a fragile diplomatic process. President Trump recently indicated that peace talks were 'very close' to an agreement, with only 'one or two thorny issues' remaining unresolved following discussions with President Zelensky at Mar-a-Lago.
