A stark new analysis from the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) has issued a grave warning that the total number of soldiers killed, wounded, or missing in Russia's ongoing war against Ukraine could reach the devastating milestone of 2 million by the coming spring. This projection arrives less than a month before the conflict marks its fourth anniversary, underscoring the immense human cost of the prolonged hostilities.
Unprecedented Losses for a Major Power
The comprehensive report, released on Tuesday, presents a harrowing statistical breakdown of the war's toll. It estimates that Russia has suffered approximately 1.2 million casualties since launching its full-scale invasion in February 2022 through to December 2025. This staggering figure includes up to 325,000 troop deaths.
The CSIS analysis concludes that no major power has endured casualty numbers on this scale in any conflict since the conclusion of the Second World War. The report starkly notes that, despite Moscow's assertions of battlefield momentum, the data reveals Russia is paying an extraordinary price for minimal territorial gains, a situation contributing to its perceived decline as a global power.
Ukrainian Casualties and the Fog of War
For Ukraine, which fields a smaller military and population, the report estimates casualties ranging between 500,000 and 600,000, with fatalities potentially as high as 140,000. Accurate, timely data on military losses remains elusive, as both Moscow and Kyiv withhold official figures while emphasising the other side's casualties.
Russia has publicly acknowledged only just over 6,000 soldier deaths, a figure widely disputed. Independent activists and journalists report that coverage of military losses is heavily repressed within Russian state media. The CSIS figures were compiled using the think tank's own analysis, data from the independent Russian site Mediazona in collaboration with the BBC, British government estimates, and interviews with officials.
A Grinding War of Attrition
The report characterises the conflict as having settled into a brutal war of attrition. It notes that despite seizing the initiative on the battlefield in 2024, Russian forces are advancing at a remarkably sluggish pace. In their most prominent offensives, advances average a mere 15 to 70 meters per day.
"This is slower than almost any major offensive campaign in any war in the last century," the report states. Analysts suggest that despite these difficulties across the roughly 1,000-kilometer front line, Russian President Vladimir Putin appears in no rush to seek a diplomatic settlement.
Overnight Attacks and Regional Strikes
Amid the report's release, officials reported fresh violence on Wednesday. A man and a woman were killed in an overnight attack on an apartment block in the Bilohorodka area on the outskirts of Kyiv, according to regional military administration head Mykola Kalashnyk.
Separate Russian strikes were reported in the cities of Odesa and Kryvyi Rih, as well as the front-line Zaporizhzhia region, wounding at least nine people and damaging local infrastructure. Ukraine's Air Force stated Russia attacked with one ballistic missile and 146 strike drones overnight, with 103 intercepted.
Meanwhile, Russia's Defence Ministry claimed its air defences destroyed 75 Ukrainian drones. Incidents were reported over Russia's Krasnodar region, the annexed Crimean peninsula, and the Voronezh region, where falling debris reportedly sparked a fire at an oil depot.
As the war approaches its fourth year, the CSIS report serves as a sobering reminder of its catastrophic human cost, with the grim prospect of casualties reaching two million in the months ahead.
