A new report from US cybersecurity firm Recorded Future warns that Russia and China could cripple the UK by cutting undersea cables, which carry 99% of the world's intercontinental data traffic. The report highlights a spate of incidents in the Baltic Sea and around Taiwan over the past 18 months as a harbinger of increased malicious activity.
Recorded Future identified nine incidents in the Baltic Sea and off Taiwan in 2024 and 2025, including the severing of cables between Lithuania and Sweden by a Chinese vessel, and a Russian ship cutting cables between Finland and Estonia. The report states that while accidents remain the most common cause of disruption, state-sponsored sabotage is likely to increase as tensions rise.
The report warns that a successful attack on multiple cables in deeper waters would require state-sponsored actors and could cause prolonged disruption, potentially before outright conflict. The UK's strategic defence review has acknowledged this threat, recommending the Royal Navy take a leading role in securing undersea infrastructure.
Recorded Future identified 44 cable damages over the past 18 months, with a quarter caused by anchor dragging and nearly a third by unknown causes. The most disruptive incidents occurred in the Red Sea, west Africa, and off South Africa, highlighting vulnerabilities in regions with limited alternative cables and repair expertise.
