Rachel Reeves has crushed Keir Starmer's dwindling hopes of remaining as prime minister. Britain requires a world-class military, but John Healey chose to resign rather than pretend that the funds the Chancellor offered were sufficient to protect the nation.
Starmer's Defence Dilemma
Sir Keir Starmer's premiership has been spiraling toward catastrophe ever since his pre-Christmas meeting with Chancellor Rachel Reeves and then-Defence Secretary John Healey. They were joined by the chief of the defence staff, Air Chief Marshal Sir Richard Knighton. The former RAF engineer delivered grim news: a £28 billion shortfall at the Ministry of Defence for the four years leading up to 2030, according to a Times report. This was a devastating blow for Sir Keir, who believed the landmark Strategic Defence Review was fully funded.
Since then, he has grappled with plugging a gap in the nation's defences, just as NATO must prepare for a potential Russian attack on a member state and President Trump demands European nations pay for their own protection.
A Christmas Crisis
Sir Keir entered the Christmas holidays facing both a security crisis and a political nightmare. A “defence investment plan” outlining how Britain's military would be upgraded to deter threats had been expected in the autumn, but after Sir Richard's intervention, there was no chance of rushing it out in the new year. The Prime Minister needed a Chancellor who could work miracles to rescue Britain's armed forces, but Rachel Reeves's priority is avoiding market turmoil that would push Britain's already punishing borrowing costs higher.
This is the same Chancellor who ended universal winter fuel payments for pensioners, plotted inheritance tax on farmers, hiked employers' National Insurance payments, and is forcing poorer Britons to pay income tax by freezing personal allowances. Sir Keir must have known that a Chancellor willing to torch her own party's popularity would not open the cash spigot for the Ministry of Defence, a department notorious for procurement scandals.
Continued Wrangling and Humiliation
Wrangling over the defence budget has continued throughout the year, and the war in Iran has made Britain's economic and security challenges even more daunting. The UK has been humiliated with naval ships breaking down and heading to port, while former generals and defence secretaries warn of dangerous vulnerabilities. The question is no longer whether we could liberate the Falklands or defend Taiwan, but whether we have a military capable of deterring attacks on Britain itself and ensuring vital supply lines, energy, and communications networks are not severed.
Healey's Breaking Point
At least Sir Keir had John Healey by his side. The 66-year-old has a reputation for unwavering loyalty and has toured the world assuring allies that Britain stands ready to defend democracy. But by Thursday lunchtime, Mr. Healey had reached breaking point. Ms. Reeves's Treasury is not prepared to deliver the cash he believes is necessary, and he has quit.
The most damning line in his resignation statement reads: “You have been unable, and the Treasury has been unwilling, to commit resources that the nation needs to defend the country at this time of rising threats.” This former ally of the Prime Minister has concluded that Sir Keir is too weak to push his Chancellor to do what it takes to re-arm Britain.
Burnham's Opportunity
Up until now, the strongest argument the PM could make for why he should not be replaced by Andy Burnham—if the Mayor of Greater Manchester wins Thursday's Makerfield by-election—is that Britain cannot afford to switch prime ministers when there are so many threats to national security. But Mr. Healey has painted Sir Keir and Ms. Reeves as part of the problem, and Mr. Burnham's challenge is to set out how he will rebuild our defences before Vladimir Putin can hit an ally. If he can do that convincingly, he could be stroking Larry the cat in the Downing Street study before the summer recess.
Reeves' Role in Starmer's Downfall
Sir Keir may well regret keeping Ms. Reeves in the Treasury. A bolder Chancellor might have issued new defence bonds, announced a ring-fenced tax to support the military, or taken a scythe to benefits. Instead, she has torpedoed her neighbour in Number 10, and his premiership is sinking fast.
