Japan's cabinet has greenlit a record-breaking defence budget for the coming fiscal year, marking a significant military build-up amid spiralling tensions with neighbouring China. The move follows a recent joint military drill between Japanese F-15 fighter jets and a US B-52 bomber over the Sea of Japan and comes as Beijing accuses Tokyo of stoking a dangerous 'space arms race'.
A Historic Budget for a New Defence Posture
The draft budget, approved on Friday, stands at over ¥9 trillion (approximately $58 billion or £45 billion). This represents a substantial 9.4% increase on the previous year's spending and is the fourth instalment in Japan's ambitious five-year plan to double its annual arms expenditure to 2% of GDP. The financial blueprint prioritises enhancing Japan's counter-strike capabilities and coastal defences, with significant investment earmarked for advanced surface-to-ship missiles and unmanned weapons systems.
In a key development for maritime security, officials confirmed ¥100 billion will be spent to deploy a "massive" fleet of unmanned drones for air, sea-surface, and underwater operations. This surveillance and defence network, codenamed "Shield", is scheduled to be operational by March 2028.
Diplomatic Fallout Over Taiwan and Space
The budgetary surge occurs against a backdrop of severely strained relations between Tokyo and Beijing. The diplomatic climate deteriorated sharply last month after Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi stated that Japan would likely become militarily involved should China attack Taiwan. Beijing, which views the self-ruled island as a province to be reunified, reacted furiously with diplomatic and economic countermeasures.
Chinese officials have since seized on Japanese military announcements to criticise Tokyo. On Thursday, China's defence ministry claimed Japan's space technology developments—some in cooperation with the United States—were "accelerating the weaponisation and militarisation of space, and fuelling a space arms race." Japan has launched several rockets since March 2023 carrying cargo craft and satellites for GPS and intelligence gathering.
Defence ministry spokesperson Zhang Xiaogang made a pointed historical reference on Sunday, stating, "Given that Japan’s vicious militarists once launched sneak attacks and that the country is now taking an offensive space policy, it is hardly surprising that there are growing concerns of another Pearl Harbor scenario."
Regional Security and the US Alliance
Japan's current security strategy explicitly identifies China as its greatest strategic challenge and advocates for a more assertive role in its security partnership with the United States. This alignment was visibly demonstrated in the recent joint aerial drill over the Sea of Japan.
The US factor further complicates the regional dynamic. China's defence ministry this week also criticised Washington for its continued support of Taiwan, following a recent US arms sale to Taipei worth over $10 billion. Furthermore, the newly passed US National Defense Authorization Act includes authorisation for up to $1 billion in 2026 for Taiwan-related security cooperation. Zhang accused the US of "emboldening Taiwan independence" and undermining stability.
Military encounters have intensified in the region. Earlier this month, Chinese aircraft locked their radar onto Japanese aircraft during drills near south-western Japan—an act considered highly provocative as it simulates a pre-attack sequence, forcing the targeted plane to take evasive action. Tokyo lodged a formal protest.
While Japan's post-war constitution traditionally forbade the use of force to settle international disputes, a 2015 reinterpretation—spearheaded by former PM Shinzo Abe—now allows for the exercise of collective self-defence under specific conditions. As China pursues a vast military modernisation programme largely focused on a potential Taiwan contingency, Japan's record budget signals a decisive and permanent shift in its own defence preparedness.
