From Controversial Statement to Commander-in-Chief
In a striking political turnaround, Catherine Connolly, who in May 2024 controversially declared during a Defence Bill debate that 'Ireland will never be able to have an army. We do not need an army,' now finds herself as the President of Ireland and the supreme commander of the Irish Defence Forces. This left-wing former barrister's past comments now clash dramatically with the nation's current security realities, where an increasingly aggressive Moscow has prompted NATO members to sound the alarm about the potential for a wider conflict.
A Gathering Storm in Irish Waters
The luxury of Ireland's geographical distance from the conflict in Ukraine offers little protection from the hybrid threats emanating from the Kremlin. In a stark example from November 2024, Russia's military spy ship, the Yantar, operated by the secretive GUGI directorate, journeyed from the Kola Peninsula down the English Channel and into the Irish Sea. There, it was observed operating drones in an area dense with subsea energy and internet infrastructure.
This vessel, long suspected of clandestinely mapping Ireland's vast network of underwater cables that carry billions in daily financial transactions and over a quarter of transatlantic data, represents a clear and present danger. The threat was further underscored when, just two weeks ago, the same ship attacked Royal Air Force aircraft with lasers and was later spotted heading towards Irish-controlled waters.
Despite these incursions, Ireland's unshakeable century-long commitment to military neutrality leaves it both unwilling and, critically, ill-equipped to defend this vital infrastructure. Military experts are issuing grave warnings, with one former British Army Colonel, Hamish de Bretton-Gordon OBE, branding the nation an 'open goal' for Vladimir Putin and the 'soft underbelly of Europe'.
A Legacy of Neutrality Meets Modern Peril
Ireland's proud neutrality, dating to 1922, has become a core part of its modern identity. The country remained neutral during World War Two and refused to join NATO in 1949, partly due to its complex historical relationship with the United Kingdom. However, this policy now presents a ticking timebomb for European security.
The evidence of being in Russia's crosshairs is alarming. Beyond the repeated sightings of the Yantar, Russian hackers crippled the Irish health service with a major cyberattack in 2021. Furthermore, the Irish government was forced to introduce emergency legislation in 2018 to block the renovation of the Russian embassy in Dublin over fears it would become a spy hub for Europe, finally pulling the plug on the project in 2020.
As a non-NATO member, Ireland is a soft target for hostile actions against Europe, lacking the deterrent of a collective military response. Former British Army Colonel Philip Ingram warns that Ireland would only be the first to fall, stating it is a 'perfect spot as a massive spy hub' from which to coordinate actions against the UK and other EU nations, facilitated by easy travel across the open border.
Critically Undermanned and Under-Equipped
Ireland's ability to counter these threats is severely hampered by a chronic lack of investment. It spends the least on defence in the EU relative to its economy, allocating just €1.3 billion (£1.1 billion) in 2024, a mere 0.24 per cent of its GDP compared to the European average of 1.74 per cent. A record €1.5 billion for 2026 still represents a paltry quarter of one per cent of GDP.
The practical deficiencies are stark. The country has no centralised intelligence agency and relies on the RAF to intercept threatening aircraft. It has no radar or sonar capability, a gap so severe that in December 2023, a British warship and helicopter had to chase a Russian submarine away from undersea cables near Cork harbour. A €60 million order for sonar will not be operational until 2027.
Philip Ingram provided a devastating summary of the Defence Forces' state: 'They have no combat aircraft at all. They have a couple of combat ships but they cannot even fire the main gun... because the last armourer in the Irish Navy retired and has not been replaced.' He added that they cannot fly their military aircraft for casualty evacuation due to a shortage of military air traffic controllers, and the army is 'woefully undermanned.'
This lack of anti-submarine capability means Ireland's Atlantic coastal waters are, in Ingram's view, 'ripe for the Russians to put a nuclear-armed missile submarine.'
A Political Divide on the Path Forward
Compounding the issue is President Connolly's firm stance against military expansion. She has criticised NATO 'warmongering,' condemned the EU’s Common Security and Defence Policy, and warned against spending more on arms instead of welfare. This position is at odds with the government of Taoiseach Micheál Martin, which has taken tentative steps like joining NATO's Partnership for Peace simulations.
However, even these efforts are limited. When ordering two Airbus 295 maritime patrol aircraft, the government specifically requested they be de-speced for 'maritime surveillance only,' unarmed. Cathal Berry, a former commander in the Irish Army’s Ranger Wing, noted this reveals 'something seriously wrong with the security culture.'
Without serious reform, Ireland remains dangerously vulnerable. A military source described the current protocol with suspicious Russian vessels as a polite, deadlocked conversation, with Ireland having no credible means of escalation. The worst-case scenario, according to Ingram, could involve a Crimea-style 'little green man' takeover. As a non-NATO member, the alliance would not be obligated to intervene, and an isolationist US might not either, potentially leaving the EU with a major new crisis on its western flank.
