Greenland's Pivotal Position in Global Nuclear Defence Strategy
The vast, icy expanse of Greenland has emerged as a crucial geopolitical flashpoint in discussions surrounding potential nuclear conflict between global superpowers. Its unique geographical location places it directly within the flight paths that intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs) would likely traverse in any hypothetical exchange involving Russia, China, and the United States. This strategic reality has propelled the semi-autonomous Danish territory into the centre of international security debates, particularly concerning advanced missile defence systems.
The Arctic Crossroads for Nuclear Missile Trajectories
In the event of nuclear hostilities, military analysts confirm that ICBMs typically follow the most direct ballistic trajectories from launch sites to their intended targets. The shortest routes between Chinese or Russian silo complexes and key locations within the continental United States—and vice versa—would inevitably cross the Arctic region, placing Greenland directly in the line of fire. For instance, Russian Topol-M missiles launched from the Tatishchevo complex southeast of Moscow would arc high over Greenland if targeted at America's Minuteman III missile bases in North Dakota, Montana, or Wyoming.
Similarly, Chinese Dong Feng-31 missiles, potentially fired from newly constructed silo fields identified by the US Defense Department, would likely overfly Greenland en route to targets on America's Eastern Seaboard. This geographical reality underscores why President Donald Trump has repeatedly emphasised Greenland's importance, stating at the World Economic Forum in Davos that "those missiles would be flying right over the centre" of the territory during any conflict.
Pituffik Space Base: America's Arctic Watchtower
Central to Greenland's defence significance is the Pituffik Space Base, formerly known as Thule Air Base until its 2023 renaming to acknowledge the Indigenous community displaced during its 1951 construction. Positioned above the Arctic Circle and approximately midway between Washington and Moscow, this installation hosts advanced early-warning radar systems that form a critical component of the Pentagon's missile detection network.
The base's sophisticated AN/FPS-132 radar operates with remarkable capability, projecting beams across nearly 5,550 kilometres in a 240-degree arc. Even at maximum range, this technology can detect objects as small as a compact car, providing crucial minutes of warning about potential launches from Russia or China. As Geneva-based nuclear analyst Pavel Podvig notes, this surveillance capability "gives the United States more time to think about what to do," making Greenland "a good location for that" purpose.
Trump's 'Golden Dome' Proposal and Ownership Controversy
President Trump has framed his disruptive campaign for US acquisition of Greenland around his proposed "Golden Dome" missile defence system—a multibillion-dollar project he claims will become operational before his term concludes in 2029. In a recent Truth Social post, Trump argued that "because of The Golden Dome, and Modern Day Weapons Systems, both Offensive and Defensive, the need to ACQUIRE is especially important," suggesting Greenland's inclusion would maximise the system's "potential and efficiency."
However, defence specialists have identified significant flaws in this ownership argument. The United States already maintains extensive access to Greenland under a longstanding 1951 defence agreement with Denmark, operating the Pituffik base for decades without territorial ownership. French nuclear defence expert Etienne Marcuz observes that Trump has never suggested needing control of the United Kingdom, despite its similar role in hosting early-warning radar at RAF Fylingdales in northern England.
Marcuz, formerly with France's Defense Ministry and now with the Foundation for Strategic Research, further notes that emerging space-based sensor technologies could actually diminish Greenland's importance in future missile defence architectures. "Trump's argument that Greenland is vital for the Golden Dome—and therefore that it has to be invaded, well, acquired—is false for several reasons," Marcuz states, pointing to alternative surveillance systems already undergoing testing and deployment.
Diplomatic Ramifications and Future Prospects
The Trump administration's aggressive posture toward Greenland has generated considerable alarm among Greenlanders and European allies alike, particularly Denmark. Experts suggest that before this diplomatic friction emerged, Denmark would likely have been receptive to any reasonable American request for expanded military presence in Greenland, having historically been "the most compliant ally of the United States," according to Marcuz.
While Trump recently announced a "framework of a future deal" on Arctic security, this development is unlikely to represent the final word on the matter. The ongoing tension highlights broader questions about sovereignty, defence cooperation, and the evolving nature of nuclear deterrence in an increasingly multipolar world. As technological advancements potentially reduce the strategic necessity of fixed Arctic installations, the diplomatic and military calculations surrounding Greenland continue to evolve, ensuring its place at the forefront of global security discussions for the foreseeable future.
