Donald Trump has claimed that a deal to end the war between Russia and Ukraine is “95% done” following his weekend meeting with Volodymyr Zelenskyy at Mar-a-Lago. However, the remaining 5% hinges on securing Vladimir Putin’s agreement, a prospect for which there are few positive indicators. The claim appears to be the latest in a series of overoptimistic statements from Trump, who previously promised to end the conflict within 24 hours during his campaign.
A sober assessment of the situation suggests that peace may be far off. On Monday, Russia accused Ukraine of using long-range drones to attack one of Putin’s residences, vowing swift retaliation—a claim Zelenskyy dismissed as “another lie” and a pretext for strikes on Kyiv. Such exchanges hardly reflect two nations on the verge of a historic peace deal. Since a US peace plan, originating from Russian demands, was leaked in mid-November, multiple deadlines for peace have passed unmet.
Key obstacles remain unchanged. Russian officials insist the war will end only when its “root causes” are addressed, a vague formulation implying continued Russian influence over Ukraine’s future. Ukraine faces a tough winter but is not yet ready to capitulate, while Putin shows no sign of abandoning maximalist goals. Trump, meanwhile, has not demonstrated willingness to pressure Moscow, instead appearing fascinated by the Kremlin autocrat.
European allies are focused on keeping Washington engaged and preventing Trump from cutting off crucial US assistance, such as intelligence sharing. Security guarantees backed by the US were announced over the weekend, but details remain vague. Russia is likely to veto any meaningful western troop presence or Nato-like assurances, meaning guarantees would have to be imposed on Russia—an unlikely step given neither the US nor Europe is willing to go to war over Ukraine.
If no ceasefire or deal materialises, Ukraine faces disheartening scenarios: either continuing to fight until a change in Russia’s political or economic climate forces compromise, or a gradual erosion of its position. For now, Trump’s “95%” claim seems more aspirational than grounded in reality.
