Tobias Ellwood, a former defence minister who has served in the military, met Vladimir Putin, and represented Britain at the United Nations, warns that the United Kingdom must take urgent action to avoid stumbling into a third world war. In his new book, Ten Steps to Prevent World War 3, Ellwood argues that Britain is repeating the mistakes of the 1930s, with inadequate preparation and resilience, and no emerging leader comparable to Winston Churchill.
Ellwood's Warning: A 1930s Moment
Ellwood, who served with the Royal Green Jackets and reached the rank of captain, asserts that the current era mirrors the prelude to World War 2. 'This is the 1930s again. But unlike then, there is no preparation, no resilience, no budding Churchill waiting in the wings,' he writes. He stresses that Britain and America have a 'duty to lead' as international rules and institutions that ensured post-war peace are weakening.
His book is dedicated to his brother, Jonathan Ellwood, a deputy headteacher killed in the 2002 Bali bombings. Ellwood describes searching for his brother in a morgue, unzipping body bags until he found him 'blackened from fire, and with both legs gone.' This experience, he says, shaped his worldview. He also witnessed the 2017 Westminster Bridge attack, where he attempted to save PC Keith Palmer, who died after 20 minutes of CPR.
Military and Political Experience
Ellwood was elected MP for Bournemouth East in 2005. Before politics, he served in Bosnia, Cyprus, Germany, Gibraltar, Kuwait, and Northern Ireland. His interest in politics began during officer training at Sandhurst, when a quartermaster issued him outdated boots and told him to 'blame the politicians.' He later worked for Rudy Giuliani and as a researcher for former defence secretary Tom King. Ellwood served as a foreign minister, defence minister, and chair of the defence select committee.
He criticises the lack of military experience among MPs, noting that nearly half of the newly elected cohort were 'former parliamentary staffers, union officials or lobbyists.' He regrets that 'the brightest minds avoid politics' and calls for a revival of statecraft.
Defence Investment and National Security
Ellwood argues that economic security cannot be separated from national security. He compares underinvestment in defence to a shopkeeper refusing to install bars on windows until after a robbery. He warns that adversaries may target energy systems and data networks to weaken Britain. Citing the Roman administrator Vegetius, Ellwood says, 'If you want peace, prepare for war.'
He acknowledges the 'special relationship' with the United States is 'clearly in a difficult place right now' and urges allies to 'rally together in a way that we've not done for some time.'
Understanding Adversaries: China and Russia
Ellwood emphasises the need to understand the perspectives of potential adversaries. He notes that modern China is shaped by the 'century of humiliation' (from the first Opium War to the founding of the People's Republic), which is taught in schools daily. This history, he says, drives China's fear that the West could return if it lets its guard down.
He recalls a 15-minute conversation with Vladimir Putin in Baku, Azerbaijan, during the European Games. Putin spoke 'flawless' English, but when Ellwood asked why he used an interpreter, Putin replied, 'Because it gives me time to think.'
Personal Background and Future Ambitions
Born in New York, where his father worked for the United Nations, Ellwood attended school in Austria and studied at Loughborough University. He considers Bournemouth home and lost his seat to Labour in 2024 but intends to stand for election again. 'Absolutely, I would,' he says.
Ellwood sees a 'very, very challenging next decade' and believes the Conservatives can capture the 'centre-Right ground,' which he calls the 'sweet spot in British politics.' His book, he says, is for the 'average Briton' who is 'getting concerned' about the world and wants to understand how to change course before it is too late.
