Andy Burnham will become Prime Minister on Monday, inheriting a daunting in-tray. The economy is struggling, inflation is rising, and oil prices are soaring. He must also navigate a difficult initial call with President Trump while leading a rookie Government.
Scottish Labour's Electoral Struggles
Scottish Labour may not be at the forefront of Burnham's mind, but a major decision looms. Politics, like football, is a results business, and the Scottish party has not topped the Holyrood league for two decades. Their latest Holyrood defeat was their fifth consecutive loss to the SNP, leaving the party appearing aimless.
At some point, pro-devolution Burnham must decide whether Scottish Labour should go it alone.
Polling Data on Independence
Polling commissioned by the Just for Scotland pressure group, led by former Holyrood candidate Jack McConnel, reveals voter opinions. The data shows 25% of voters would be more likely to support Scottish Labour if it became separate from UK Labour, 24% less likely, and 51% undecided.
Among SNP backers, 43% said they would be more likely to vote for a separate Scottish Labour, 18% less likely, and 39% unsure. For Green voters, 44% were more likely, 11% less likely, and 45% undecided.
Potential for a New Scotland-Only Party
Respondents were also asked if they would consider voting for a new “Scotland-only party” described as “progressive,” “championing Scotland's devolution,” and favoring “closer alignment with Europe.” Among Holyrood voters, 74% of SNP backers and 72% of Scottish Green voters said they would potentially consider it.
Internal Party Dynamics
Party insiders indicate Scottish Labour leader Anas Sarwar supports some form of split, and he shares a good relationship with Burnham. Sarwar may be staying on as leader to complete this unfinished business. Resistance to a separate party is expected from older members with emotional ties to the UK structure, and Scottish Labour MPs fear it could blur lines of accountability.
Burnham has stated that devolving more powers to the nations and regions will be a top priority as Prime Minister. He faces a significant decision on whether to greenlight an effective breakaway of his Scottish party.
