Hospitals across the UK are preparing for a potentially severe flu season, driven by a mutated strain of the virus that has become dominant earlier than usual. The variant, a descendant of the H3N2 subtype, emerged in Australia and has spread rapidly, causing concerns that this winter could see the highest number of flu admissions in ten years.
The mutated virus, which underwent antigenic drift, is believed to be more transmissible, with an estimated R value of 1.4 compared to the usual 1.1–1.2. Health officials warn that the early start of the season, combined with lower vaccination uptake among some groups, could lead to a larger peak in infections.
NHS managers are intensifying vaccination efforts for staff and communities, expanding same-day emergency care, and treating more patients in the community to reduce hospital admissions. However, ongoing strikes by resident doctors in England over pay are complicating plans, forcing hospitals to rely on contingency measures such as bringing in consultants for extra shifts and rescheduling appointments.
Elaine Clancy, group chief nursing officer for St George's, Epsom and St Helier university hospitals, said: 'Last flu season was particularly nasty and we’re very concerned that this year could be even worse. We’re preparing for a spike of flu on to our wards.' The UK Health Security Agency (UKHSA) reported that flu cases continue to rise overall, with infections highest in children but increasing in older people.
Early data suggests current vaccines are less effective at preventing infections from the mutated strain but still offer good protection against severe illness. Vaccine effectiveness against hospital attendance stands at 70–75% in children and 30–40% in adults. Health officials urge eligible individuals, especially older people and those with long-term conditions, to get vaccinated and take precautions to stay well this winter.
