Hospitals in the UK are preparing for a once-in-a-decade flu season, driven by a mutated version of the virus that is spreading widely in younger people and expected to cause a wave of admissions among the elderly. The threat has prompted NHS managers to intensify vaccination efforts, expand same-day emergency care, and treat more patients in the community to reduce hospital stays.
As resident doctors in England continue a five-day strike over pay, hospitals are implementing contingency plans, bringing in consultants and other staff for extra shifts and rescheduling appointments where necessary. Elaine Clancy, group chief nursing officer for St George’s, Epsom and St Helier university hospitals, expressed concern: 'Last flu season was particularly nasty and we’re very concerned that this year could be even worse.'
Scientists first identified the mutated strain in June. Genetic analysis traces it to a descendant of the virus that fuelled Australia’s worst flu season on record, with over 400,000 lab-confirmed cases. The mutation, arising from a natural process called antigenic drift, has become the dominant strain in the UK, triggering the flu season more than a month earlier than usual.
Health officials fear the new mutations may boost transmissibility. In a normal season, the R value is about 1.1 to 1.2; this season it is thought to be 1.4. Antonia Ho, professor of infectious diseases at the MRC-University of Glasgow Centre for Virus Research, noted that an early start often leads to a bigger peak, partly because fewer people are vaccinated early on. Early data suggest current vaccines are less effective at blocking infections from the mutated virus but still provide good protection against severe disease, with 70-75% effectiveness in children and 30-40% in adults against hospital admission.
The UK Health Security Agency reports that cases are highest in children but creeping up in older people, with further rises expected as colder weather drives indoor mixing. Caroline Abrahams of Age UK urged eligible individuals, especially older people, to get vaccinated and take precautions. Despite the threat, less than a third of people with long-term health conditions have received the vaccine so far.
