Reduced contributions from wealthy nations to anti-malaria efforts could trigger the deadliest resurgence of the disease on record, costing millions of lives and billions of pounds in lost economic growth by 2030, according to a new analysis.
The report, co-commissioned by the African Leaders Malaria Alliance (Alma) and Malaria No More UK, warns that the fight against malaria faces new threats, including extreme weather, humanitarian crises, and growing biological resistance to insecticides and drugs. Gareth Jenkins of Malaria No More UK said: “Cutting funding risks the deadliest resurgence we’ve ever seen.”
The study examined the impact of potential cuts to the Global Fund to Fight Aids, TB and Malaria, which provides nearly 60% of international financing for mosquito nets and preventive drugs. If funding were 20% lower than in the previous round, the researchers estimate an additional 33 million cases, 82,000 deaths, and $5.14bn (£3.83bn) in lost GDP by 2030. If the funding vacuum led to a complete collapse of malaria control, the figures would rise to 525 million more cases, 990,000 more deaths – 750,000 of them children under five – and $83bn in lost GDP.
However, such cuts appear likely. Germany recently pledged $1bn to the fund, 23% less than its previous commitment, and the UK government is reportedly considering a 20% reduction, though no final decision has been made. Conversely, the report notes that full funding of $18bn would boost GDP by $230bn, reduce cases by 865 million, and prevent 1.86 million deaths.
Joy Phumaphi of Alma said African countries have increased domestic health budgets but still face enormous challenges, including debt servicing and a growing burden of non-communicable diseases. She appealed to the G7, the private sector, and high-net-worth individuals to maintain investment, noting that better malaria control fuels economic growth and trade. Nigerian businessman Aliko Dangote urged others to join him in filling the funding gap, stating: “Malaria is not just a health crisis; it is an $83bn brake on Africa’s growth and enterprise.”
