Hospitals across the UK are preparing for a potentially severe flu season driven by a mutated strain of the H3N2 virus, which has become dominant earlier than usual. The strain, first detected in June, is a descendant of the virus that caused Australia’s worst flu season on record, with over 400,000 lab-confirmed cases. Officials warn that the mutations may increase transmissibility, with the R value estimated at 1.4 compared to the typical 1.1–1.2.
NHS managers are ramping up vaccination efforts for staff and communities, expanding same-day emergency care, and treating more patients in the community to reduce hospital admissions. However, ongoing strikes by resident doctors in England have forced hospitals to implement contingency plans, including bringing in consultants for extra shifts and rescheduling appointments.
Elaine Clancy, group chief nursing officer for St George’s, Epsom and St Helier university hospitals, said: “Last flu season was particularly nasty and we’re very concerned that this year could be even worse. We’re preparing for a spike of flu on to our wards.” Dr Claire Beynon of Cardiff and Vale University Health Board noted a “rapid and early increase in influenza” and expects rising hospital admissions.
Flu infections are currently highest in children but are increasing among older people, who are more vulnerable to severe illness from H3N2. The UK Health Security Agency (UKHSA) reports that while current vaccines may be less effective at blocking infection due to the mutations, they still provide 70–75% protection against hospitalisation in children and 30–40% in adults. However, less than a third of people with long-term health conditions have been vaccinated.
Health officials urge all eligible individuals to get the flu vaccine and take precautions. Caroline Abrahams of Age UK emphasised: “It is more important than ever that everyone that is eligible – including older people – gets the flu vaccine and also takes precautions to stay well this winter.” The UKHSA expects cases to rise further as colder weather drives indoor mixing.
