As the world monitors an outbreak of deadly hantavirus on a Dutch cruise ship off the West African coast, social media users have questioned whether the rare, rodent-borne illness could trigger the next global pandemic and bring back Covid-era lockdowns. Researchers are tracking passengers potentially exposed to the virus in Georgia, California, Arizona, Virginia, Texas, and other countries. However, experts maintain there is little reason to believe hantavirus—especially this rare strain—will spread widely.
Expert Opinions on Transmission
"The key to transmission is shedding virus in the presymptomatic and asymptomatic phase," said Vincent Racaniello, Higgins Professor of Microbiology and Immunology at Columbia University. "Influenza and SARS-CoV-2 are very good at it. For hantavirus, the barrier is efficient human-to-human transmission." Even on the vessel with nearly 200 passengers and crew, infections have only occurred among those with the closest contact, including a married couple. Three people have died, and three cases have been confirmed by laboratory testing since mid-March.
Current Situation
The ship is heading to the Canary Islands, where passengers will be evacuated. None are showing symptoms, according to shipowner Oceanwide Expeditions. Several passengers have been medically evacuated, and 30 guests disembarked at St. Helena on April 24, including six of the 17 Americans aboard. Hantavirus is fatal in nearly four out of 10 infected individuals, with symptoms like fever and dizziness typically appearing within two months of exposure to an infected rodent, per the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.
The CDC assures the risk to the American public remains "extremely low," a sentiment echoed by the World Health Organization. "This is not the next Covid, but it is a serious infectious disease," said Maria Van Kerkhove, WHO director of epidemic and pandemic preparedness. "Most people will never be exposed to this."
Comparison with Covid-19
Covid-19 is far more transmissible through the air and can spread before symptoms start. In contrast, the Andes virus strain of hantavirus is usually limited to close contact with an ill person, though research on its spread is sparse. It can be transmitted for weeks after illness onset, but a previous outbreak in Argentina suggested the transmission window is only about a day, according to Dr. Gustavo Palacios, a microbiologist at the Icahn School of Medicine at Mount Sinai.
Historical Context
First detected in the U.S. in the early 1990s, the virus has had ample time to become an epidemic. "If it were going to become an epidemic, it would have happened a long time ago," said Thomas Ksiazek, a virologist tracking emerging infectious diseases. While experts insist Andes virus is not the next pandemic, researchers have long warned that another pandemic is on the horizon.
Future Pandemic Risks
The likelihood of disease outbreaks could triple in coming decades, with the probability of a pandemic similar to Covid-19 at about 2 percent annually, according to Duke University's Global Health Institute in 2021. "Is there another pandemic coming? Yes. When? Which pathogen? How severe? No one can say for sure," said Yonatan Grad, a professor at Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health. "But big demographic changes from climate change and economic factors will alter the landscape, creating new risks for emerging and re-emerging pathogens."
