A new report commissioned by the government's chief scientific adviser warns that the NHS could face overwhelming pressure this winter unless urgent action is taken. The Academy of Medical Sciences assessed the potential impact of a 'triple whammy' of coronavirus, influenza and respiratory syncytial virus (RSV), alongside a backlog of routine care.
The report, compiled by 29 experts, suggests that hospitalisations and deaths from flu and RSV could be double those in a normal year. This could lead to as many as 60,000 flu deaths and 40,000 children hospitalised with RSV, while the health service continues to battle Covid-19. The resurgence is attributed to reduced population immunity due to lockdown measures suppressing these viruses over the past 16 months.
Professor Azra Ghani, an infectious disease epidemiologist at Imperial College London, described the modelling as a worst-case scenario but stressed that the 'triple whammy' of infections on top of the care backlog would 'potentially disrupt services' and put 'severe strain on the NHS'. The report also highlights a shortage of 84,000 staff and 2,500 GPs, with hospitals operating fewer beds due to infection control measures.
New data from Imperial College's React-2 study indicates that vaccination rates among retail and hospitality staff are 20% lower than others of the same age, possibly due to zero-hours contracts making appointments harder. The report calls for a 'concerted effort' to vaccinate all adults by September and prepare for a dual flu and Covid booster campaign.
Professor Dame Anne Johnson, president of the Academy of Medical Sciences, urged continued caution, including mask-wearing in crowded indoor spaces, physical distancing, and home-working where possible. She emphasised that anyone with symptoms should self-isolate and get tested. The report recommends 'supercharging' the NHS with new staff, more beds, better infection control, and rapid tests to distinguish between viruses.
