More than half of adults and a third of children worldwide will be overweight or obese by 2050, posing an 'unparalleled threat' of early death and disease, according to a report published in The Lancet. The analysis reveals a staggering increase in obesity rates over the past three decades, with 2.11 billion adults and 493 million children currently affected, up from 731 million and 198 million in 1990.
Without urgent policy reform, the number of overweight or obese adults aged 25 and above is forecast to reach 3.8 billion by 2050, while 746 million children and young people will be affected. The research predicts a 121% rise in obesity among children and young people, with 360 million expected to be obese by 2050. Lead author Professor Emmanuela Gakidou described the epidemic as 'a profound tragedy and a monumental societal failure.'
Geographically, more than half of overweight or obese adults live in just eight countries: China, India, the US, Brazil, Russia, Mexico, Indonesia, and Egypt. By 2050, around one in three obese children will be in North Africa, the Middle East, Latin America, and the Caribbean. Children are gaining weight faster than previous generations, increasing risks of type 2 diabetes, heart disease, and cancer at younger ages.
In the UK, obesity among children aged five to 14 is projected to rise from 12% to 18.4% in girls and from 9.9% to 15.5% in boys between 2021 and 2050. Nearly a quarter of the world's obese adults in 2050 will be aged 65 or above, straining healthcare systems, especially in low-resource countries. A separate study by the World Obesity Federation warned that most premature deaths from high BMI occur in lower- and upper-middle-income countries, highlighting poor treatment availability.
The Lancet study acknowledged limitations, including reliance on past data and exclusion of emerging interventions like weight-loss drugs. Commenting on the findings, Thorkild Sørensen of the University of Copenhagen stressed the need for global public health interventions to address the crisis.
