The Department for Work and Pensions (DWP) has released new analysis explaining the surge in Personal Independence Payment (PIP) claims since the pandemic, with over four million claimants in England and Wales. In a parliamentary answer on July 15, DWP minister Sir Stephen Timms outlined trends in working-age disability benefits and the factors driving increased claims and spending.
PIP Claims Growth Since 2020
Labour MP Neil Duncan-Jordan asked what analysis had been undertaken on the reasons for the rise in PIP claims between 2020 and 2024. Sir Stephen Timms responded by pointing to official documents that reveal steady growth in working-age disability benefits since their introduction, with accelerated pace after the pandemic. Expenditure has risen in tandem. One document states: "This increase is both due to more people being awarded and a reducing likelihood of people leaving."
The higher awards are mostly driven by more claims, but there has been a small increase in the likelihood of an award for new claims since the pandemic, and a larger increase for claimants previously receiving Disability Living Allowance (DLA) as a child. The change in award rates coincides broadly with the pandemic but may be driven by changes in decision-making approaches introduced a few months before.
Demographic and Condition Trends
The rises in recipients have been broadly spread across age, gender, and condition, but the most significant jumps in the percentage of the population claiming PIP or DLA have been recorded among 16-to-19-year-olds and women. In terms of conditions, the sharpest increases are linked to mental health issues such as anxiety and depression, as well as neurodevelopmental conditions like autism. Some of the latter rise may be due to shifts in how conditions are recorded.
The document notes a broader increase in self-reported disability and claims over an extended period, accelerating since the pandemic. Officials say it is highly probable that numerous factors contribute, with some having long-term relevance and others concentrated at specific moments.
Factors Influencing Increased Claims
In a section titled 'Factors influencing increased claims and expenditure', the report concludes: "It is not possible to prove or quantify most of the drivers of disability benefits demand – not least because they will interact with each other and not always be obvious to the claimant themselves." Potential drivers include health and household finances, and timings of increases in PIP claims. Many have been subject to analysis outside government, but complex interactions and data limitations make firm conclusions difficult.
The Timms Review and PIP Reform
The DWP's response follows an announcement that disability benefits are "no longer fit for purpose," according to a review that concluded amid pledges of "bold" reform. Claimants often find the PIP application process "dehumanising," "soul destroying," and "degrading," according to the interim Timms report. The most recent figures show the number of claimants in England and Wales surpassed four million for the first time, roughly doubling since 2019.
The review was launched last year after ministers backed down on proposals to reform disability benefits, including for mental health conditions, following opposition from Labour backbenchers. Rather than immediate reforms, the review—led by Sir Stephen Timms—was established to gather opinions on PIP and its effectiveness, with the government pledging no changes until its completion. The final report, with recommendations for reform, is expected in autumn, with the government insisting it will ensure PIP is "fit and fair for the future."
