The fertility rate in England, Wales, and Scotland has fallen to a record low for the third consecutive year, according to official data. The Office for National Statistics (ONS) reported that the total fertility rate in England and Wales dropped to 1.41 in 2024, down from 1.42 in 2023, the lowest since records began in 1938. In Scotland, the rate fell to 1.25, also a record low, with the number of live births dropping to 45,763, the lowest since 1855.
Despite a 0.6% increase in live births in England and Wales, the fertility rate declined because the adult population grew faster. The ONS noted that since 1938, such a scenario has occurred only six times, with four happening since 2011. For a population to remain stable without migration, a fertility rate of about 2.1 is needed.
Greg Ceely, head of population health monitoring at the ONS, said: “Fertility rates in England and Wales have been in overall decline since 2010. The total number of births increased last year, for the first time since 2021; but this was offset by population growth. As a result, fertility rates fell overall, and are now at the lowest rates on record.”
The average age of mothers rose to 31 and fathers to 33.9 in 2024, continuing a long-term trend. Mothers in London had the highest average age (32.5), while those in north-east England had the lowest (30). Fertility rates fell for all age groups under 30, but increased for mothers aged 30-39 and fathers aged 35-39 and over 50.
Regional disparities emerged, with the West Midlands and London seeing slight increases in fertility rates, while most other regions declined. Luton had the highest rate (2.0), and the City of London the lowest (0.32). Bernice Kuang, a demography researcher at the University of Southampton, suggested the decline might be temporary, noting that the UK still follows a “persistently strong two-child norm”.
