For the third consecutive year, England and Wales are witnessing a sustained and significant drop in the number of babies being born, pushing the fertility rate to its lowest level since records began. The latest official figures from the Office for National Statistics (ONS) paint a stark picture of a deepening demographic shift with profound implications for the nation's future.
The total fertility rate (TFR), which represents the average number of children a woman would have in her lifetime, has fallen to a historic low of 1.49 children per woman in 2024. This figure falls far below the rate of 2.1 needed for a population to replace itself without migration, signalling a potential long-term challenge for public services and the economy.
The Drivers Behind the Decline
Experts point to a complex web of socio-economic factors fuelling this decline:
- Soaring Cost of Living: Rising inflation, skyrocketing housing costs, and stagnant wages have made raising children financially prohibitive for many young adults.
- Career and Economic Uncertainty: Many are prioritising career stability and financial security over starting a family, often delaying parenthood until later in life.
- Changing Social Norms: There is a growing societal acceptance of choosing to remain child-free, a shift that is contributing to the overall decline.
A Look at the Regional Data
The decline is not uniform across all age groups. While fertility rates have dropped for women under 30, there has been a slight increase for women in their early 40s, highlighting the trend of delayed childbirth. However, this increase is not nearly enough to offset the broader downward trend observed in younger demographics.
The data also reveals subtle regional variations, though the overall pattern of decline is consistent across both England and Wales, suggesting a nationwide phenomenon rather than one isolated to specific urban or rural areas.
The Long-Term Implications
A persistently low fertility rate poses significant challenges. An ageing population with fewer young people entering the workforce can strain public finances, impacting the sustainability of the NHS, the state pension system, and other vital services. It also threatens to stifle future economic growth and innovation.
This new data will likely intensify calls for the government to implement more robust pro-family policies, including more affordable childcare, better parental leave provisions, and greater financial support for young families, to try and reverse this worrying trend.
