In a significant development for public health, a team of US scientists has launched a first-of-its-kind online tool designed to predict an individual's long-term risk of developing cardiovascular disease. This innovation arrives at a critical time, as new figures reveal that premature deaths from heart attacks and strokes in the UK have reached their highest level in over a decade.
A Wake-Up Call for Long-Term Health
Experts have long warned that heart disease remains the leading cause of death globally, with a staggering 80 per cent of cases considered preventable. The new calculator, a free tool developed for adults aged 30 to 59, aims to tackle this issue head-on by providing a personalised 30-year risk forecast.
Dr Sadiya Khan, a cardiovascular epidemiology expert at Northwestern University in Chicago and co-creator of the tool, explained its unique approach. 'This is the first time percentiles have been translated and applied to long-term risk for heart disease,' she said. The calculator uses simple inputs—including age, sex, blood pressure, diabetes and smoking status, BMI, and cholesterol readings—to generate a score. This score is presented as a percentile rank, showing users how their risk compares to 100 peers of the same age and sex.
'When a patient sees they are in the 90th percentile, we hope that this will serve as a wake-up call,' Dr Khan added. 'Risk starts early and prevention efforts and activities can reduce that risk and should not be put off. We don't want to wait until it's too late.'
The Alarming UK Context
The launch of this preventative tool is particularly pertinent for the UK, where the landscape of cardiovascular health is worsening. Recent analysis has uncovered an 18 per cent surge in heart-related deaths between 2019 and 2023, jumping from 18,693 to 21,975.
Furthermore, the British Heart Foundation reports a 21 per cent increase in heart failure diagnoses since 2020—the highest figure ever recorded. The charity also highlighted an 83 per cent surge in the number of patients in England waiting for planned heart treatment since the start of the decade. This troubling trend marks a sharp reversal of decades of progress, where annual deaths from heart conditions had previously been halved since the 1960s.
Experts suggest this rise may be driven by a combination of factors, including:
- Unhealthy diets and increased consumption of processed foods.
- The lingering effects of Covid on the heart and circulatory system.
- Significant disruption to GP and hospital care.
How the Calculator Works and Its Potential Impact
To build the calculator, the Northwestern University team analysed health data from nearly 8,000 adults aged 30 to 59 who were initially free of heart disease. They then applied the Predicting Risk of Cardiovascular Disease Events (PREVENT) equations, which were developed by the American Heart Association using data from tens of thousands of American adults.
The research revealed that men had a higher long-term risk of heart disease than women at every age. However, Dr Khan was quick to note that 'the risk for heart disease for women catches up with time,' underscoring the importance of sex-specific assessment tools.
The researchers are clear that the calculator is not a substitute for professional medical advice. Instead, it is designed to empower individuals to think proactively about their heart health and the lifestyle factors that influence it. By framing risk in relatable terms—much like a growth chart or a standardised test—the tool hopes to motivate people to take action early, potentially saving countless lives from preventable heart conditions.
