With the United States stepping back from climate action, former UK Prime Minister Gordon Brown has called on world leaders to seize the opportunity presented by COP30 in Brazil to form a coalition committed to tackling the climate crisis. Writing in The Guardian, Brown argues that the crumbling of the old world order demands new leadership, and that those who understand the urgency must act now to counter climate deniers.
Brown notes that while China is the world's leading manufacturer of low-carbon technologies, its recently submitted national emission goals are underwhelming, leaving its willingness to assume climate leadership unclear. Instead, he points to the EU, Norway, and the UK as the western leaders in green industrial policy, alongside Japan as a key provider of climate finance to the global south. However, he warns that the EU is under pressure from major industries and far-right parties to weaken climate targets.
The severity of recent storms in Jamaica, Brown says, adds to the frustration of climate-vulnerable states led by Barbados Prime Minister Mia Mottley. He highlights UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer's decision to attend COP30 and adopt a fresh leadership role with Ed Miliband as significant. Brown calls for a new approach focused not just on investment but on saving and improving lives now, from increasing food production on parched land to preventing the 500,000 annual deaths caused by extreme heat and related health problems.
Brown warns that the world is already around 1.5°C warmer and emissions are still rising, despite the Paris Agreement's goal to limit warming to 1.5°C. He notes that the next stocktaking is not until 2028, and current projections show 2.3°C to 2.7°C warming by century's end. Citing the World Meteorological Organisation, he reports that carbon dioxide levels are rising at their fastest ever rate, with extreme weather events now double the intensity of the 2003-2020 average. Weather-related damage cost nearly half a trillion dollars in 2022-2023, and record droughts in Africa caused acute hunger for 23 million people in 2023.
Brown criticises the lack of provisions in the Paris Agreement for national climate plans to be discussed and revised. He recalls that at COP26 in Glasgow, countries agreed to strengthen their plans the following year, but only one did. Four years on, only 67 out of 197 countries have submitted plans, achieving just a 10% reduction in emissions when a 60% cut is needed. He concludes that future generations will judge today's leaders, and COP30 offers a chance to define that legacy.
