Studying the demise of historic civilisations can reveal how much risk we face today, says collapse expert Luke Kemp. Worryingly, the signs are worsening.
Great civilisations are not murdered; they take their own lives, concluded historian Arnold Toynbee. However, self-destruction is usually assisted. The Roman Empire, for example, fell due to overexpansion, climatic change, environmental degradation, poor leadership, and invasions by the Visigoths and Vandals.
Collapse is often quick and greatness provides no immunity. The Roman Empire covered 4.4 million sq km in 390; by 476, its reach was zero. Our deep past is marked by recurring failure. Kemp, at the Centre for the Study of Existential Risk at the University of Cambridge, conducts historical autopsies to understand why collapse occurs.
Virtually all past civilisations have faced collapse, defined as a rapid and enduring loss of population, identity, and socio-economic complexity. Some recovered or transformed, like China and Egypt; others, like Easter Island, were permanent. Kemp argues that lessons from agrarian empires apply to our industrial capitalist era, as societies are complex systems prone to failure.
Our technological advancement does not make us immune to threats that undid ancestors; it brings new challenges. Global scale is no armour against dissolution; our tightly-coupled, globalised economic system may be more vulnerable.
